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This October 25 marks the first anniversary of the coup that interrupted the democratic transition of Sudan. A year later, the military still has not appointed a prime minister, and the country has been plunged into political and economic turmoil and corruption.
Report by Houda Ibrahim
It seems clear that the military coup a year ago has derailed the delicate transition to democratic elections. The country is paralyzed. The military cannot control street anger in Khartoum and faces problems at all security and economic levels in the country.
Sudan today presents a picture of widespread disorder and the army continues to take one step forward, two steps back. “He insists on staying in power because he lost his main source of income, which was oil, with the independence of South Sudan”, analyzes Marc Lavergne, director of research at the CNRS and a specialist in the Horn of Africa. “But in the meantime , following the model of the Egyptian army, has taken over many of the country’s resources,” he adds.
The researcher also claims that the Sudanese army needs to stay in power “to continue to control these resources.” According to him, the army “has never been in favor of this democratic transition. The question is how to buy time. But it does not have a minimum of legitimacy before the population, which continues to protest, and cannot or does not want to secure the peripheral regions of the capital, which are plagued by very violent tribal fighting and clashes, as recently in the Blue Nile”.
Military supported by the Gulf countries
However, the international community is increasingly putting pressure on the military to transfer power to civilians. Donors will not give more money to Sudan until the situation changes. But at the same time, the military has the support of some Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates. They also have the support of Egypt, Russia and other regional forces such as Turkey.
The Sudanese military remains committed to preserving its economic privileges, says Raphaëlle Chevrillon-Guibert, associate researcher at the Center for Economic, Legal and Social Studies and Documentation (Cedej) in Khartoum: “One of the fundamental aspects of last year’s coup was, in reality, the fact that the military wanted to put an end to the civilian enterprise of economically dismantling the old regime.
In this dismantling, continues the researcher, “was the part of the military, who have been very present in the Sudanese economy for 15 years and who did not want these privileges to be taken away from them.” They want to “maintain their pre-eminence in the economic sector”, he adds. By carrying out this coup, the military “took control of the economic sector,” observes Raphaëlle Chevrillon-Guibert. “This is clearly seen in the gold sector.”
The military refuse to submit to the executive for fear of being judged
The issue is one of the most thorny in the current discussions between civilians and the military, who are trying to appeal to certain figures of the old regime to form a government that is favorable to them. But economic privileges are not his only motivation to retain power. “If the military returns to civilian control, they could end up being tried for a series of crimes committed in Darfur and other parts of the country, but also for crimes committed during the repression since the revolution,” explains Clément Deshayes, a researcher at the Research Institute Strategy of the Military Academy.
Therefore, the question of his immunity also arises. “The challenge for the army is not to face revolutionary or transitional justice, and to put itself under the control of civilians. This is a key issue in the current negotiations with civilians”, continues Clément Deshayes. That is why the generals want a council of the armed forces that guarantees them a form of immunity and control over military affairs.
Today, in Sudan, the population has the impression of returning to the regime of Omar al-Bashir. This is what you continue to reject by manifesting, by energy and force. On the first anniversary of the coup, tens of thousands of Sudanese are once again taking to the streets to demand a return to the democratic process and civilian rule.
