No, NASA has not warned about a solar storm: here’s what we know about the possibility

This weekend alerts have been triggered for a possible solar storm. The storm is forecast for tomorrow, Tuesday. The origin: the tweet of an expert disseminator in space meteorology. Although the prediction has been attributed to NASA, the US space agency has not issued any alert or warning. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does mention possible minor impacts caused by solar activity and a small possibility of moderate or strong radio disruptions.

The space weather report.
As with conventional meteorology, NOAA is the main agency in charge of publishing forecasts for this type of event. On its website you can consult the observations, predictions Y alerts for impacts caused by radio disturbances, solar radiation storms and geomagnetic storms.

For now, the observed levels are null for the three parameters, but there are possibilities of change for tomorrow. Specifically, minor radio disruptions could occur (45% chance) that could reach more serious levels (10% chance). Regarding the possibility of impacts caused by a solar storm, a 10% possibility of minor impacts is estimated. As for geomagnetic storms, the prediction is of zero impacts.

In Spain AEMET is the agency in charge to monitor in space time. Since this spring, the agency has a gate specifically dedicated to the topic. Nor has AEMET issued any warning about possible impacts of a solar storm.

The NASA.
The tweet that has triggered the alert refers to a NASA prediction. However, it does not seem that the alarms have been triggered at NASA either. Neither among its press releases nor on its page dedicated to the activity in the multiple pages dedicated to the sun study, your activity or your interaction with the earth.

fulgurations of origin.
Solar cycle number 25 is giving something to talk about, and with reason. Solar activity is outperforming initial forecasts created by solar models. The last solar flares of a certain magnitude occurred on July 16, one in the morning and one in the afternoon. These are major events. M1.1 and M1.4 on the scale used by NASA to study this type of solar explosion.

The scale uses four letters to denote the event intensity (B, C, M and X in order from lowest to highest strength) followed by a number between zero and 10. Like the Richter scale, this is a logarithmic scale, each letter represents an energy level 10 times higher than the previous one . From M5 the event begins to be considered strong.

Fulgurations and ejections.
Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation or light that occur on the Sun. They are events that can release huge amounts of energy, but they are not alone. Sometimes these flares appear accompanied by Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These ejecta are clouds of plasma ejected from the Sun’s surface accompanied by a magnetic field.

The solar surface presents various levels of activity depending on the strength of the star’s magnetic field and the existence of turbulence in this field. The greater the activity, the greater the probability that events such as solar flares will occur, since these are caused by the sudden release of this energy.

Impacts on Earth.
When solar activity reaches the Earth it can generate different types of disruptions like the ones we have already seen. These are produced by the interaction between these solar turbulences and the terrestrial ionosphere and magnetic field. The three main space weather events are the ones mentioned above: radio disruptions, solar radiation storms, and geomagnetic storms.

X-rays and ultraviolet radiation ejected by the Sun that strike the Earth’s ionosphere can cause radio signal problemsgenerally concentrated in high frequencies (3-30 MHz), an event called radio disruption (Radio Blackout Event).

They are the most frequent events of this type, and can occur up to 2,000 times in a single solar cycle (about 180 times a year or once every two days). They are also the events that reach our planet at the highest speed. Impacts are measured on a scale between R1 (minor) and R5 (extreme). NOAA predictions speak of a 45% chance of an R1 or R2 event and a 10% chance of a higher one (R3-R5).

Solar radiation storms.
The solar flares they can also cause charged particles (protons and electrons) to be expelled into outer space, reaching the earth’s atmosphere. Upon arrival they can cause storms of solar radiation (Solar radiation storms). The magnetic field protects us from these particles, although satellites and the polar areas of the Earth can be especially vulnerable to this radiation.

These storms can again cause loss of high-frequency radio communications in polar regions, problems with GPS, and high levels of radiation that would affect astronauts and flights at high latitudes. The impact scale is similar to the previous one and goes from S1 to S5. According to the forecasts we can expect a storm of intensity at least S1 with a 10% probability.

Geomagnetic storms.
CMEs are primarily responsible for geomagnetic storms (geomagnetic storms). These cause clouds of plasma that can also reach our planet at high speeds, which when impacting with our magnetic field cause the storm.

Geomagnetic storms have a visible impact on auroras, which intensify and can move towards the equator. They can also affect electrical equipment. a storm of intensity G1 it can create small fluctuations in the electrical network and affect some animals. the strongestG5, can cause the failure of electrical networks, problems in satellites and space vehicles and the displacement of the northern lights to the south of the Iberian Peninsula.

The last great solar storm.
In any case, the space weather forecast for tomorrow is quite optimistic. The likelihood of it going beyond some radio disruption is slim. As a reference we can take the last recorded storm. It was a G3 level geomagnetic storm that occurred at the end of March. Despite the alarms, it did not cause any significant events. Let’s hope this potential storm doesn’t cause major problems either.

Image | POT