The Russian president, Vladimir Putinassured on Thursday afternoon that Russia had tested a new medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile called Oreshnik in Ukraine. The missile, of the latest generation according to the Kremlin, would have been included in the bombing of a military base neighboring the city of Dnipropetrovsk, an operation that Putin described as “successful.” The attack represents Moscow’s response to the use of long-distance ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, American and British manufactured respectively, on Russian soil, following authorization by President Biden last Monday.
Putin insisted that this authorization turned the war in Ukraine into a “global conflict” and once again threatened the West to use its weapons “as it sees fit.” In the morning, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, had already threatened Poland for the installation of anti-aircraft defenses that posed, according to the Kremlin, a risk to Russian national security. The Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterresasked all parties to work on the immediate de-escalation of tension.
In his public statement, the Russian president stated that every NATO action would be responded to appropriately. This same week, Putin himself signed the decree by which the Russian nuclear doctrine was modified to be able to respond with unconventional weapons to any type of attack, as long as it came from a country allied with a nuclear power. The panic that has arisen since then obviates the fact that Ukraine has previously bombed Russian soil (Belgorod) with American weapons. In fact, it has occupied part of the Kursk region for three months using Western military aid.
The nuclear threats, no matter how loud they may be, seem to have the same basis as when the United States and NATO were demanded not to supply Ukraine with Patriot missiles, nor HIMARS medium-range batteries, nor F16, nor ATACMS. In fact, Putin already warned of a possible holocaust if Ukraine attacked Crimea. It does not appear that objective conditions have changed since then. Russia continues to advance and bleed at the same time. Ukraine remains on the defensive with Western support hanging by a thread.
Demonstration of power
We must understand, therefore, that we are facing a propaganda battle more than anything else. With permission to use the ATACMS on Russian soil, the White House sent a message of strength for Russia to take seriously the possibility of a fair negotiation, something that Putin continues to rule out. As the days go by, what seemed like a unilateral decision by the Biden administration is taking shape in agreement with the president-elect donald trump after their meeting last weekend. Otherwise, We understand that the Republican would have already made his disagreement public.
Trump may want to show Putin that he has the tools to get him to sit at the peace table. Ukraine already knows that at any moment it can run out of weapons, so the new president does not need to convince Zelensky of anything. If they really want it to be a negotiating table and not one of surrender and, above all, if Trump wants to maintain something similar to a status quo in the West impervious to Russian imperialist ambitions, may be forced to show its tougher side.
For his part, Putin will do everything possible to convince the world that he is really willing to end life on the planet simply as a matter of ego. No one in their right mind can consider Russia or its government to be existentially threatened. In fact, before beginning the invasion of Ukraine, both US President Joe Biden and his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, spoke with the highest levels of the Kremlin to try to negotiate and calm any fears regarding their security. They got no response.
Reuters
Amenaza a los civiles
El lanzamiento de este nuevo misil, que durante buena parte del día los ucranianos confundieron con un misil balístico intercontinental, lo que sí hubiera sido una escalada gravísima en el conflicto, pretende demostrar que Rusia va en serio y que esas seis ojivas convencionales que traía consigo podrían haber sido perfectamente nucleares de mayor o menor intensidad. De hecho, Putin vino a insinuar algo parecido con un sibilino “la próxima vez que utilicemos un misil hipersónico, avisaremos a los civiles”.
Exactamente qué quiere decir esa expresión está abierto al debate, pero, en cualquier caso, se trata de una amenaza: han atacado una base militar con un misil que Putin considera imposible de derribar (eso está por ver) y pueden hacer lo propio con una ciudad entera. Del mismo modo, se puede entender que la próxima vez que vayan a utilizar esa arma, más le vale a los civiles desalojar el objetivo porque la ojiva esta vez será nuclear.
Rusia sigue lanzando la idea de una III Guerra Mundial tanto de forma directa como a través de sus múltiples propagandistas. Después de casi tres años y decenas de miles de fallecidos, aún ha sido incapaz de completar la conquista del Donbás que empezara en 2014, pero cree que puede vencer a Occidente con un simple amago. El portavoz del Kremlin, Dimitri Peskov, aseguró que habían avisado a EEUU media hora antes del ataque. No especificó para qué, simplemente reforzaba así la idea de que no estamos ante una guerra de agresión contra Ucrania por mucho que la tengamos delante de nuestros ojos, sino de un acto de defensa frente a una supuesta amenaza estadounidense.
Putin ya contempló utilizar armas nucleares tácticas en Ucrania en otoño de 2022 tras los desastres de Járkov y Jersón, pero fue disuadido por la contundencia de la respuesta de Washington. “Una guerra nuclear no se puede ganar”, le avisó entonces Biden. Es la misma doctrina que sigue China. Para luchar por un nuevo orden mundial, primero hay que garantizar que ese mundo en cuestión siga existiendo. A Pekín, ahora mismo, el holocausto le viene muy mal. Algo tendrán que decir al respecto.
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