New Caledonia’s divided past and fractured future

The Pacific is immersed in a ““polycrisis”. Island States are still recovering from the economic and social demands of COVID-19. Chinese involvement in the region, described as the new “Great Game” is heating up regional geopolitics. Bougainville’s independence from Papua New Guinea is a possibility. Furthermore, recently, violence engulfed and divided New Caledonia.

Not all Kanaks support independence. But in the 2018 and 2020 referendums, the proportion supporting independence grew, attracting 46% of New Caledonian voters in 2020. Disputes followed a third referendum –held in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic – which the Kanak independence movement boycotted, being immersed in the cultural demands of mourning and for fear of greater viral contagion. The “loyalists” prevailed convincingly with 96% of the votes.

France accepted these results. But the pro-independence Kanaks opposed it and requested a repeat of the elections, which contributed to the breakdown of trust between the prominent FLNKS (Kanak National and Socialist Liberation Front) and the French state. This came to a head when France attempted to change New Caledonia’s electoral roll to include more newcomers to the territory, which would have fueled opposition to independence.

When the proposal was presented to the French National Assembly, it was met with peaceful protests in New Caledonia. But once this bill appeared to block any path to independence, with French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin suggesting a referendum in 50 years, violence broke out again.

Barricades isolated the suburbs. Supermarkets, schools and factories were set on fire and destroyed. Air links to New Caledonia were closed, the valuable tourist economy collapsed and 11 people died. More than 5,000 soldiers, gendarmes and riot police arrived from metropolitan France, imposing a partial peace as the violence continued.

Electoral matters were developed in a fragmented context. Noumea is seen by many as a predominantly white preserve, a city of ““squatters and yachts”with uneven development for those who live in the shadow of the local nickel refinery, where unemployment and inequality – in access to education and healthcare – can be harsh.

There is deep frustration among young Kanaks unable to find decent employment, along with the realization that after more than 30 years of slow movement to “rebalance” society and the economy towards a more egalitarian state, too little has changed. The main island’s nickel economy was already experiencing a decline – the disputed 2021 referendum and the proposal for a new franchise were the straws that broke the camel’s back.

Eight prominent leaders of the Field Action Committee of the hardline independence party, Union Caledonienne, were arrested for promoting violence and deported to metropolitan France 17,000 kilometers away from relatives and lawyers. A remarkable repetition of History, although in reverse: New Caledonia was a penal colony during the 19th century. One of those deported was Joel Tjibaou, son of the most prominent independence leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou, assassinated in 1989.

French President Emmanuel Macron returned for 24-hour talks and a troubled peace ensued as France held its national elections. New Caledonia, for the second time, elected an independence supporter, Emmanuel Tjibaou, to the National Assembly. The overall French outcome was uncertain, as a fractious left-wing coalition and Macron’s centrists colluded to keep the far-right Rassemblement Nationale out of power. None of that bodes well for keeping the focus on New Caledonia.

Some external actors got involved. The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) advocated independence, questioned the validity of the third referendum and attempted to undertake a mission to New Caledonia. New Caledonia joined the FIP’s concern for West Papua. But the FIP is only one of many interested parties.

Azerbaijan strongly supported independence because France supported Azerbaijan’s bitter enemy: Armenia. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights published a statement critical of France. In a flurry of press releases, confusion reigned. With France and its regional military presence welcomed by Australia and other metropolitan states as a bulwark to contain an expanding China, New Caledonia became embroiled in global geopolitics.

Even more so than their close neighbors on Bougainville, the Kanaks have little current hope for a just and smooth transition to independence. Too many vested interests stand in the way. In the wake of the violence and uncertainty, pro-independence parties divided over future directions and strategies, while Macron appointed a pro-loyalist prime minister for the territory.

Few countries have achieved independence in this century. East Timor achieved it in 2002 after prolonged violence. South Sudan emerged in 2011. But the widespread non-recognition of Kosovo and the ongoing violence in Palestine are uncomfortable precedents.

Depending on the stance taken by the incoming center-right French government and the verdicts on activists in French prisons, the future looks bleak for New Caledonia’s independence. That desolation is likely to take its toll in a city and territory even more divided and with intermittent resumptions of violence, especially if the urban economy stagnates.

As once said Jean-Marie Tjibaou, “as long as a Kanak is alive, there will continue to be a problem for France.” Instability and uncertainty, an insecure French government and increasingly entrenched positions suggest a long path ahead.

Article translated from English from the website East Asia Forum.