new base in Belarus and expansion in Africa

The riot began this Saturday when Prigozhin He took control from the strategic southern city of Rostov-on-Don, located just across the Ukrainian border. Later, he and his troops they headed towards moscowcoming to be only 200 kilometers from the capital before turning back, according to an audio published by Prigozhin on Monday.

The leader of the Wagner Group affirmed that the march did not seek to overthrow the governmentbut to protest against “destruction” of the Wagner Group, since the Executive approved a law that implied its dissolution from July 1. In addition, he expressed his intention to “bring to justice” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his team for not provide support to Wagner’s troops and for allegedly carrying out deliberate bombing which resulted in the death of about 30 combatants of the group.

The riot was immediately greeted with fierce criticism by the Kremlin. “This is one stab in the back to our troops and to the people of Russia,” Putin said during a televised speech on Saturday, promising to punish to all those involved in the rebellion.

However, accepted a deal negotiated between the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, and Prigozhin. According to this agreement, the head of the mercenaries would be exiled to Belarus and the Kremlin drop criminal charges against him. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, confirmed that the charges against Wagner’s forces that participated in the march would also be dropped.

[¿Cuál es el precio de la rebelión de Wagner?]

Prigozhin the “traitor”

Although Prigozhin claimed that he would go into exile, his current location remains unknown after last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don on Saturday. In the audio on Monday he asserted that He did not intend to carry out a coup and continued to criticize senior security officials, although He did not say anything about his whereabouts. nor his plans.

In addition, the viability of the negotiated agreement remains in doubt due to the Putin’s record of not forgiving betrayal. Although Putin did not mention Prigozhin by name, he accused “the organizers of the rebellion” of “betray your country” in a televised speech this Monday. Russia has a law that punishes treason with death penalty. According to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, in an interview with npr“Putin has imprisoned and killed to people for much less than what Prigozhin has done to him. I find it inconceivable that Putin would allow him to live longer than absolutely necessary.”

The fate of the Wagner Group

In his speech on Monday, Putin alluded to the fact that Wagner fighters who do not want to join the Russian army, as they are now forced to do it by law as of July 1, they will have to return home or seek exile in Belarus. However, there remains uncertainty of how many fighters will choose to sign. When Putin asked them before the rebellion to sign a contract to be under the control of the Defense Ministry, only about 1-2% didaccording to Prigozhin.

In Africathe Wagner Group has consolidated its political, military and economic influence, establishing security and military assistance contracts in territories previously controlled by France, such as Mali and the Central African Republic. The possible departure of Wagner or the change of fighters there would complicate Moscow’s geopolitical position on the mainland and would weaken its ties with African countriesaffecting their support in international forums and their access to strategic resources.

as told Yuri Leving, professor of Russian culture and politics at Princeton University, to EL ESPAÑOL, although for the moment Putin I could still count on strength enough human to continue with the aggression, there are “signs that indicate that your streak of good luck could be coming to an end“.

The Kremlin also faces uncertainty as to whether many Wagner Group fighters they will comply with the law. In his recent message, Putin reaffirmed that the purpose of the march was to defy the law, since They don’t want to dissolve the group.. In addition, according to state media reports, the Russian cities of Tyumen and Novosibirsk have resumed recruitment of fighters after temporary closures over the weekend. The Wagner Group itself also posted on Telegram that it is looking for new employees.

Furthermore, according to the independent Russian newspaper vertskaa new military camp is being built for 8,000 fighters from the Wagner Group in the Mogilev region in Belarus, about 200 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. According to the media, the construction of more camps in the futurewhich raises a possible threat for Putin and his government.

[¿Ha robado Prigozhin armas nucleares durante su ‘golpe’? El nuevo miedo en la guerra de Ucrania]

According to Leving’s statements to EL ESPAÑOL, “the image of a convoy of tanks headed for Moscow is something that Putin will hardly be able to forget“. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether Putin will simply forgive the riot and allow Prigozhin to live peacefully in Belarus, or whether will retaliate more forcefully.