Nearly 10 million people in the southwestern US on rain alert

() — The potential tropical cyclone four formed over the western Gulf of Mexico, with sustained winds of 56 km/h, according to an 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. It was located about 265 kilometers south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The hurricane center uses the potential tropical cyclone designation to issue warnings for a system before it is named.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast from Boca de Catán north to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and for the entire lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield south to the mouth of the Rio Grande. Tropical storm conditions are expected in these regions in the next 12 to 24 hours as the system moves closer to the coast.

The system is expected to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico on Saturday afternoon and move inland through Sunday.

There is still uncertainty as to whether the system will strengthen enough to become a named storm before landfall. If she does, her name will be Danielle.

An 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center said “the chances that the disturbance [Potencial ciclón tropical cuatro] become a tropical cyclone appear to be tapering off.” The storm is located near the coast and may not have enough time to strengthen before moving inland.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four still remains disorganized over the Gulf of Mexico and has no defined center at or near the surface, according to recent data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters.

Despite this, heavy rains of 25 to 76mm, with isolated totals of up to 127mm, are forecast in parts of Texas and Mexico over the next 48 hours, which could lead to flash flooding in localized areas.

“Regardless of the state of the system, the overall impacts are expected to be the same,” the NHC said. “Tropical storm force winds and heavy rains are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Sunday.”

The system is forecast to rapidly weaken after it moves inland and eventually dissipate over south Texas by Sunday night.

Millions of people at risk throughout the southwestern US.

Nearly 10 million people in Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas were under a flood watch Saturday, including the towns of Phoenix, Albuquerque and El Paso.

“The stage is set for southern Arizona and New Mexico to potentially receive prolific showers and widespread flash flooding today,” as a low-pressure system brings moist tropical air to the Southwest in the form of heavy showers and thunderstorms to add to the already active monsoon season across the region, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said early Saturday morning.

The Southwest faces excessive rainfall and possible flash flooding this weekend

Widespread rain totals of 20 to 76 millimeters are forecast, with locally higher totals of 127 to 177 millimeters, leading the WPC to issue a “moderate” level 3 out of 4 risk for excessive rain ahead of the wet forecast. That could mean widespread flash flooding across the Southwest.

On Saturday, a search and rescue operation for a missing person continued in Zion National Park in Utah following flash flooding on the Virgin River, according to a tweet from the national park.

Rangers were alerted to hikers being “plucked” near the Sinawava Temple on Friday afternoon, according to Zion National Park spokesman Jonathan Shafer. Some hikers were located.

“The park rangers found an injured hiker who had been washed down the river several hundred meters,” Shafer said. The injured hiker was taken to a hospital, according to Shafer. The condition of the hiker is unknown.

The flash flooding in Zion National Park is associated with rain from the same system affecting the Southwest this weekend.

“Urban locations as well as complex terrain areas, slotted canyons, creeks and recently burned places are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and can quickly become very dangerous situations,” the WPC noted on Saturday.

The plume of moisture and heavy rain is expected to move into North Texas beginning Sunday through Monday, where a level 2 of 4 “slight risk” of excessive rain has been issued. It is possible that it will rain between 50 and 76 mm per hour, depending on the WPC.

“Urban areas will be the most vulnerable to flooding during the period, even with extremely dry drought conditions.”

More than 90% of the state of Texas is currently experiencing drought conditions, with nearly 62% experiencing extreme or exceptional drought conditions, the highest categories.

‘s Ray Sanchez, Rebekah Riess and Paradise Afshar contributed to this report.