NATO renounces preparing a multi-year plan for Ukraine shielded from Trump

The initiative of the outgoing Secretary General had the objective of giving predictability to the Government of Volodymyr Zelensky so that it can plan new offensives against Russia. But he also intended that Atlantic Alliance could somehow maintain support for kyiv even if Trump wins and decides to disengage. In this sense, Stoltenberg also proposed that NATO assume the coordination of the shipment of weapons that is now carried out by the Rammstein Group, which is now directed by Washington.

From the beginning, NATO countries were skeptical of Stoltenberg’s plan, which should have been approved in the Washington summit to be held July 9-11. And in the end they have completely discarded the idea of ​​a multi-year fund because they consider that anti-Trump shielding is not feasible. “The figure of 100 billion was a toast to the sun. A multi-year commitment is not realistic. The political situation is very fluid in all countries, not just in the United States. You just have to look at what is happening in France. And the budgets are prepared year after year,” explain allied sources.

[La OTAN sopesa crear un fondo de 100.000 millones de ayuda militar a Ucrania que sobreviva a Trump]

Instead, the countries of the Atlantic Alliance will commit at the Washington summit to give Ukraine a total of 40 billion dollars, but only for this year. This figure has been arrived at after verifying that NATO sent kyiv 80 billion in the first two years of the war. It is not about creating a new fund either, but about adding up all the bilateral contributions (and through the EU), so that it can be verified that each Member State contributes its share. “It is rather a mechanism for quantification, supervision and control“, the sources point out. In fact, only with the money that the United States has committed (60,000 million) this figure is far exceeded.

NATO Defense Ministers meet this Thursday and Friday in Brussels to finalize preparations for the Washington summit. In parallel, his own Stoltenberg traveled to Budapest this Wednesday to convince Viktor Orbán, the only European leader who maintains contact with Vladimir Putin, not to veto this minimum plan. The Hungarian Prime Minister has made it clear that he will not participate in any type of aid to Ukraine, but he will not veto the Alliance plan, which requires unanimity.

The other major hurdle that still needs to be resolved before the Washington summit is How to respond to Ukraine’s repeated calls to join NATO. In Vilnius, the allies agreed that the invitation to the club will be made “when the allies agree and the conditions are met.” Now the heads of State and Government want to go a step further and leave in writing that kyiv’s path towards the Atlantic Alliance is “irreversible.”

Rutte general secretary?

In any case, the allies also want to make it clear that there will be no invitation to Ukraine while the conflict remains open. The entry into NATO of a State at war would mean the immediate invocation of Article 5, the collective defense clause. And it would force the Atlantic Alliance into a direct war clash with Russia, something it has actively wanted to avoid from the beginning.

The last issue that remains open ahead of the Washington summit is the election of the new secretary general, which also requires unanimous support. The still Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, currently has the support of 29 of the 32 Member States. They are missing Romania, whose president Klaus Iohannis has also presented his candidacy; Slovakia, which has not expressed itself either for or against any candidate; and Hungary, which has many unfinished business with Rutte and supports Iohannis.

The allies still hope that Iohannis (whose candidacy they see as surprising and incomprehensible) will withdraw before the end of the month and clear the way for Rutte. However, the Government of Budapest has recently reiterated that it will never support the Dutchman because in its opinion he has repeatedly attacked Hungary.