Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Baltic Sea, which connects eight NATO member countries with Russia, has been the scene of numerous sabotages. First was the blowing up of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in September 2022 and then Germany, Sweden, Finland and Lithuania were victims of the cutting of telecommunications cables from their underwater fiber optic network.
In recent weeks, however, new actions have been recorded that disrupt normal movement through the sea. Specifically, mobile communications and maritime tracking systems are registering interference, which puts at risk, not only the safety of the vessels, but also the stability of energy supply in Europe. According to Poland and other coastal countries, Russia is behind these interruptions, which are part of a hybrid war strategy. The goal? Measure the reactions and responses of different Western countries.
It was Vice Admiral Krzysztof Jaworski, commander of the Polish Naval Operations Center, who explained to the news agency Reutersthat these actions carry serious consequences for maritime traffic and supply chains that cross the sea. “We are talking about aggressive behavior that seeks to destabilize our region and challenge the cohesion of the alliance,” he stated in a recent interview with the agency.
And Poland, which receives most of its liquefied natural gas and pipeline shipments from Norway through the Baltic, fears that its energy security is in danger. “These actions constitute a direct threat to our critical infrastructure,” warned Jaworski, who also stressed the need for a coordinated response from NATO.
ghost ships
Investigations into some sabotage have pointed to the possible involvement of Russia, although Moscow denies any responsibility and accuses the West of trying to destabilize it. through disinformation campaigns.
One of the methods used by Russia, as detailed by Jaworski to Reutershas been the deliberate shutdown of Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) on its commercial vessels, allowing them to move without being detected. This not only violates international maritime law, but also creates risks for other ships in transit by making safe navigation difficult. Since the sabotage of Nord Stream, this type of maneuver has been recorded dozens of times.
Furthermore, Russia has intensified its interference with the navigation signals of other ships in the region, jamming positioning systems and transmitting false readings. “We are facing ghost echoes and interference that affect both mobile data and identification systems,” Jaworski justified. Finland has also reported similar problems: in October, its Coast Guard reported that interference has caused commercial ships lose their way on the high seas.
A challenge to collective security
The head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, Bruno Kahl, warned last month about the impact of these sabotage tactics on the security of the region. In his words, these actions could even force NATO to consider activating of Article 5 of your Treatywhich establishes collective defense in the event of an attack against one of its members.
For Poland, however, the immediate challenge lies in maintaining effective surveillance in its Baltic waters. Jaworski has admitted to the agency Reuters what is impossible to constantly monitor the entire regionalthough he highlighted that joint operations with NATO allies have been essential to preserve balance.
“Our strategy will be to monitor, observe and demonstrate our capacity for action”
Despite this, tensions could rise if Russia decides to move more warships to the Baltic.including missile-armed ships that currently operate in the Mediterranean. According to Jacek Siewiera, head of the Assembly of Security National of Poland, there is a possibility that Moscow will redirect these unitswhich were on the coast of Syria, towards Saint Petersburg, a journey that would take them across the Baltic Sea.
Jaworski noted that Poland and its allies are prepared to respond to any movement of this type. “Our strategy will be to monitor, observe and demonstrate our capacity for action, so that any potential adversary knows that we are ready,” he stated.
A field of tensions
The Baltic has become a strategic terrain where energy, political and military interests mix. Poland, like other countries in the region, depends on this route to receive essential oil and gas supplies. However, constant sabotage attempts and hybrid warfare tactics exercised by Russia complicate the situation and generate uncertainty.
“Hybrid warfare in the Baltic is the biggest challenge we face,” said Jaworski, emphasizing the importance to maintain strategic advantage of NATO in the area. However, he acknowledged that each new Russian ship represents a potential threat, and is confident that the alliance can redirect resources from other areas, such as the Atlantic or the Mediterranean, to maintain balance at this critical point.
The scenario unfolding in the Baltic is a constant test for Western powers. Russia, with its calculated moves, tests not only military capabilities but also NATO’s coordination and political strength. On this board, where the waves hide invisible dangersvigilance and cooperation between allies are essential to prevent tensions from escalating into open conflict.
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