The generals have ordered a census to be held in the first half of October in order to hold general elections in November 2025. A farce that, according to commentators, serves to give the impression that they are in control of the country. In reality, the army controls less than 20% of Myanmar and tensions with China continue to grow.
Yangon (/Agencies) – The Burmese coup junta announced today that it will carry out a national census in October. Army chief General Min Aung Hlaing said that the data collected between October 1 and 15 will be used to compile the electoral rolls in a “correct and accurate” manner, which is essential for holding democratic, free and multiparty general elections in November 2025.
This is not the first time the military junta has proposed holding a general election, although it is widely seen as a farce. Civil conflict continues across much of the country, and dozens of parties, including the National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi – who led the government before the 2021 coup – have been officially dissolved because they failed to register in time, state media reported.
In reality, the army is not in a position to keep the entire country under control, and many commentators believe that the announcement of elections serves to give the impression that it is not. A report A report published in May by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, an independent think tank, shows that the military junta has stable control over only 14 percent of Burmese territory, compared with 34 percent held by the resistance forces.
Indeed, several areas along the borders are currently controlled by ethnic militias in conjunction with the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), the armed wing of the National Unity Government in exile (NUG), composed mostly of former deputies of the National League for Democracy. Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the NUG, said that the pretext of the census would serve to “gain information about the people” and then “be able to intimidate them.”
Junta media reported last month that the Chinese government had offered to help carry out the census. It is true that Beijing maintains close relations with the junta on several fronts: last week, for example, Ma Jia, the new Chinese ambassador (who took up the post in mid-August), met with General Tin Aung San – who serves as the Burmese regime’s defence minister – to discuss military cooperation.
However, several ethnic militias fighting the army are also subservient to China: the secretary-general of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) said he had received a letter from Beijing calling for an end to fighting against the Burmese army in areas of northern Shan State along the border with China. The warning was issued by the Security Commission of the city of Ruili, a major trading centre receiving goods from Myanmar.
If fighting continues, the letter sent late last week continues, all necessary measures will be taken to prevent attacks on the lives or property of Chinese citizens. “The TNLA must take responsibility for all consequences,” it continues. In addition, from August 27 to 29, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted military exercises along the border between the two countries. The Chinese embassy in Rangoon told reporters that the Chinese government had been conducting military exercises for the past 25 years. local media that “China will continue to play a constructive role in Myanmar’s peace and reconciliation process and promote the reduction of tensions in northern Myanmar.”
The TNLA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, an alliance of three ethnic militias that launched an offensive against the Burmese army in October last year and now controls cities along the main trade routes with China. Indeed, Beijing’s main concern is to ensure that trade flows between the two countries are not interrupted and that projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, the mega infrastructure plan launched in 2013 that should connect China to Africa and Europe, in this case via the Indian Ocean, continue to advance.
In recent weeks, however, tensions have risen between General Min Aung Hlaing – who rejects any kind of compromise or ceasefire with ethnic militias – and China, which has sold thousands of dollars worth of weapons to the Burmese regime. The junta chief said the withdrawal of army troops in northern Myanmar was due to Chinese-made drones in the possession of ethnic militias.
In response, Beijing accused Min Aung Hlaing of “betrayal” for failing to accommodate Chinese mediation proposals, and within the Board Discontent over the handling of the conflict continues to grow, to the point that rumours of a possible internal coup were circulating in mid-August. The rumours were denied by Min Aung Hlaing himself, who on 15 August rushed to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to show him that he was still in control of the situation.
Add Comment