In recent weeks, clashes between the Burmese coup army and ethnic militias have intensified in the border areas between both countries. Faced with this new outbreak of violence, Thailand has proposed a series of “informal” meetings to reactivate the peace process. But representatives of armed groups have not been invited, there is no clarity on the agenda, and within ASEAN there remain divisions over the Myanmar regime.
Yangon () – The ethnic militias fighting against the Burmese military junta since 2021 have reconquered several territories on the border with Thailand in recent weeks, causing some unrest in Bangkok, which has announced that in the coming days they will carry out a series of “informal” meetings to try to resolve the diplomatic impasse over the civil war.
Thailand is concerned about a number of issues, ranging from reduced trade to the growing number of migrants arriving without documents, but also about the outposts of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in the State. of Shan along the 2,400 kilometer border between the two countries. Bangkok says there are at least nine bases on Thai territory and has called for them to be removed. Unlike the other ethnic militias fighting the coup army, the UWSA has not formally aligned itself against the military junta, and has controlled its own territory independently of the central government for decades. It handles drug trafficking in the region and also maintains relations with China.
Between Burmese and Thai officials “they will mainly discuss border issues and issues related to cross-border crime.” “We will talk about cooperation on border stability and the fight against crime,” the spokesperson said of the board regarding the talks, although he did not specify a date. Last month Thai officials, fearing their forces would become embroiled in Myanmar’s civil conflict, asked UWSA fighters to withdraw from forest outposts between the two countries. But WA officials rejected the request, saying the Thai military “is not our enemy.”
The Karen National Union (KNU) has also advanced in several border territories with Thailand: yesterday the militia recaptured Manerplawthe historic headquarters of the group, which since 1995 was under the control of the Burmese Army. The Kachin Independence Army, ignoring China’s calls for a truce, has also resumed an offensive in the Putao district of Shan State, in the far north of Myanmar. Over the past year, Beijing has attempted to negotiate a ceasefire between the military and ethnic militias to protect its economic and trade interests in the country, but has failed to convince the parties to sign a definitive agreement.
Thailand is now trying to take the reins of the diplomatic initiative without excluding the other ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, although these, since the civil conflict broke out in 2021, have limited themselves to proposing a peace plan of five points that the military junta never respected or took into consideration.
According to some commentatorsThailand’s proposal (favored by former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s links with the Burmese junta and in particular with the general who heads it, Min Aung Hlaing) is an example of “bamboo diplomacy”, capable of adapting to the different situations. The meetings proposed by Bangkok, which will take place tomorrow and Friday in Thailand and Laos (which this year holds the presidency of the Association), break with the practice of letting the rotating presidency propose peace initiatives. For other analysts, the Thai government’s measure reflects the willingness to (re)approach the military junta, as China and partly also India have done so far, whose representatives will be present at the talks, along with diplomats from Bangladesh and, for Myanmar, the Foreign Minister of the Burmese regime, Than Swe.
But the absence of representatives of the various ethnic militias or other international organizations such as the UN has been strongly criticized, because the future of the country once the conflict has ended remains unknown. Many fear that ethnic militias will want to continue independently administering the territories they have taken possession of, as they are already doing now in some regions. The lack of transparency regarding the issues to be discussed has also been criticized, about which the governments of the region have so far not provided details.
Within ASEAN, strong divisions remain over Myanmar. Many countries refuse to reinstate Burmese generals into the organization, considering that most of them are under Western sanctions, and there is an international arrest warrant against General Min Aung Hlaing. It is estimated that at least 30,000 people have died so far and the number of internally displaced people is almost 4 million. The International Organization for Migration counted 5.2 million migrants from Myanmar in Thailand alone in July this year, most of whom flee to escape compulsory military service. “The question is whether we want to sacrifice the unity and diplomatic legitimacy of ASEAN to once again embrace a pariah state,” commented one local diplomat.
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