More violence in Mexico and more information in the US

With the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, the last of the old Mexican drug lords, a new era begins for the Sinaloa Cartel — one of the most powerful in the world — which experts believe could lead to more violence in Mexico and a considerable flow of information from judicial proceedings in U.S. courts.

Zambada, who eluded authorities for decades and never set foot in jail, was one of Mexico’s oldest and most astute drug lords, known for his corrupting power and negotiating skills with everyone, including opposing groups, all the experts consulted agreed.

Once they disappear from the criminal scene, an internal war for control of the cartel could break out – as has happened in the past following the arrests or deaths of important bosses – and the more violent techniques used by younger drug lords could prevail.

That’s why the Mexican government on Friday reinforced its military deployment in Sinaloa by sending 200 members of the Army’s Special Forces unit to its capital, Culiacán.

There is “significant potential for an escalation of violence in Mexico,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a researcher at the Brookings Institution think tank. “That’s bad for Mexico, bad for the United States, and there’s the possibility that the Jalisco New Generation Cartel — the Sinaloa Cartel’s main enemy and considered more bloodthirsty — will increase its already great power.”

The investigator therefore indicated that although the arrest can be considered “a great tactical success” it may not be a “strategic” success in the fight against drug trafficking.

While further official details about Zambada’s arrest are lacking, what is known so far, a U.S. official told AP, is that Zambada was tricked into flying to Texas, where he was arrested with Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, the former cartel leader who was sentenced to life in a U.S. prison in 2019.

Mexican Public Security Secretary Rosa Icela Rodriguez said a small plane took off from Hermosillo airport in the border state of Sonora with an American pilot. Flight tracking service FlightAware showed the plane stopped transmitting its altitude and speed for about 30 minutes Thursday while over the mountains of northern Mexico before resuming its course toward the U.S. border.

“It is a fact that one came from here and three arrived there,” said Rosa Icela Rodríguez. The details in between are still to be known.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Mexico had not participated in the arrests but considered Zambada’s arrest “a step forward,” whether it was “due to an agreement or because they detained him because (U.S. authorities) had information that he was going to travel,” he said.

Frank Pérez, one of Zambada’s lawyers, said that his client did not turn himself in.

José Reveles, a Mexican author of numerous books on the cartels, said that everything points to the fact that “they set a trap” for “El Mayo,” because Guzmán López “is neither his friend nor his collaborator, but rather he is part of the group of ‘Los Chapitos’,” a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel different from Zambada’s and formed by the sons of “El Chapo.”

However, Reveles considered it feasible that both could go together to visit an airport used by traffickers because the two groups “are together, in fentanyl trafficking.”

“Los Chapitos” are considered one of the main exporters of this synthetic opiate, very lucrative and causing many deaths in the United States, and also some more violent and extravagant bosses than Zambada. His head of security was arrested by the Mexican authorities in November.

Joaquín Guzmán López is one of the lesser-profiled brothers, but according to Reveles, he is accused of being the link to introduce chemical precursors from Asia into Mexico, necessary to manufacture fentanyl, as well as to set up laboratories to manufacture this drug.

Anne Milgram, head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), said Zambada’s arrest “strikes at the heart of the cartel responsible for the majority of drugs, including fentanyl and methamphetamine, that kill Americans from coast to coast.”

During the current government, which ends in September, and despite the fact that both governments boast of their good relations, especially since the United States is in the midst of an electoral campaign, Mexico has not managed to control the violence, tensions have grown in the fight against the cartels – which López Obrador replaced with the supposed attention to the roots of insecurity – and mutual distrust remains.

“The power of drug traffickers today is unprecedented in the history of Mexico,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown.

And that despite the arrests. One of them was that of a son of “El Mayo,” Ismael Zambada Imperial, who, after an agreement, pleaded guilty to importing and distributing tons of drugs before a US federal court in 2021.

Another son of “El Chapo”, Ovidio Guzmán López was captured and extradited to the United States last year. The US embassy reported that his judicial status had recently changed, but that he remained in the custody of the authorities. “He is not released, there is a change in precautionary measures,” said Secretary Rosa Icela Rodríguez, who added that this could indicate that he is acting as a cooperating witness.

The possibility that “El Mayo” could do the same to obtain prison benefits is a reality and, in that case, the amount of information he could offer is unpredictable.

Zambada is the biggest corruptor, Felbab-Brown explained, the most influential drug trafficker who “has developed extensive corruption networks during many governments, across a wide geography and from the highest levels of the Mexican government to municipal institutions.”

“The most important thing will be to see how much intelligence information or evidence El Mayo will provide in exchange for benefits,” he said.

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