Things in politics almost never go as strategists plan. Pedro Sánchez knows it well with his ‘resistance manual’, which is facing new fronts within the coalition, with a future a priori uncertain, before which Moncloa tries to remain calm. The socialists’ roadmap was to increase the number of laws that are coming out of Parliament and end the year with the approval, for the third consecutive time, of the General State Budget for 2023 in a timely manner. But several issues have slipped in the middle that have stirred the waters within the Government, but also with the partners of the coalition and within the parties that support the Executive. Sánchez’s reaction, who has been out of Spain all week for the G-20 summit, has been to wait for it to clear up.
The accusations of machismo by Podemos to the judges divide the Government and Yolanda Díaz calls for prudence
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The downward revisions of the sentences for rapists and pedophiles as a result of the “only yes is yes” law is what has stirred the waters the most. It has been a blow that the Government did not expect. Although the Socialists assure in private –with some exceptions such as the executive of Castilla-La Mancha who has done so publicly– that they warned the Ministry of Equality of what could happen, Sánchez has tried to temporize by not questioning the norm and appealing to the prudence until the courts unify the doctrine. In Moncloa they have great expectations in the meetings scheduled by some provincial courts, such as Madrid, Euskadi or Zaragoza, as well as in the criteria set by the Prosecutor’s Office.
The difficult entente with Equality
Meanwhile, a battle on several fronts has been evident. On the one hand, the clash of Podemos with the judges, who in Moncloa have warned, and the increasingly noticeable cracks with the second vice president and leader of that space in the coalition, Yolanda Díaz. On the other hand, equality policies have once again been placed at the center of the dispute between government partners. On this occasion, beyond the call for calm that Moncloa has issued, which has opened up to making modifications, always waiting for judicial indications and moves with caution, aware of the delicate relationship with Podemos, in the PSOE they have revolted with what happened and the pressure has increased.
The fear of an unsustainable trickle of downward sentence modifications has led socialist territorial leaders who are not at all suspicious of arguing with United We Can to press for measures to be taken, contrary to the criteria that Irene Montero’s department has defended from the beginning. that now he has lowered his tone, keeping pace with Sánchez when defending that they wait for the unification of the jurisprudence. “What proceeds is to rectify as soon as possible,” said the Asturian president, Adrián Barbón. “If fortunately it is an organic law that can be reviewed, do what has to be done,” said Concha Andreu from La Rioja. They were joined by others such as Emiliano García-Page, Javier Lambán or Guillermo Fernández Vara.
Concern has also taken hold of the socialist leadership as a result of the door that Sánchez opened to modify the crime of embezzlement that could benefit the pro-independence leaders. The maneuver would go through accepting an amendment in the processing of the reform of the Penal Code promoted by PSOE and United We Can to change the crime of sedition, replacing it with one of aggravated public disorder. This legislative modification is already viewed with suspicion in some federations, such as Castilla-La Mancha or Aragón; but going a step further by touching something as delicate as embezzlement generates rejection in the socialist ranks. “With public money, zero jokes,” said the general secretary of the PSOE-M, Juan Lobato.
“It would be difficult to explain and even more so months away from municipal and regional elections,” reflects a prominent leader, who confesses to being baffled about Sánchez’s position regarding the review of embezzlement while acknowledging that the steps he has taken Giving the Government they have served to reduce inflammation of the independence movement and, with this, calm the situation also in the rest of Spain with which Catalonia no longer passes so much electoral bill to the Socialists.
Finalize the sedition reform before the end of the year
In Moncloa they do not budge from the argument: for now they limit themselves to ensuring that it has complied with the commitment to standardize criminal legislation to the rest of Europe and to kick forward with respect to the ERC demand to also address embezzlement, which is the crime for which numerous pro-independence leaders await trial and for which Oriol Junqueras, among others, has been disqualified.
However, the sedition reform and the consequent possibility of touching embezzlement not only squeaks in the PSOE, but parliamentary allies of the coalition have shown discrepancies. Podemos and Compromís are suspicious that the measure could benefit corrupt politicians; PNV, Bildu and Más País show caution and only ERC, which advocates a “surgical reform”, the commons and the PDeCAT openly defend it. Más País has also questioned the sedition reform, warning that it can “criminalize” social protest.
The Government’s idea is that the reform of the Penal Code be processed urgently in order to be approved before the end of the year. A formula that allows noise to be reduced as it coincides with the Budgets, the rise in the minimum wage and, of course, with the Christmas holidays.
The Melilla crisis
But neither does the path seem liberated on another front that has ended up turning against Sánchez, who took a turn of the helm as soon as he came to power with the acceptance of the Aquarius, but who has had great troubles in immigration policy since then. The last episode was revived by a BBC documentary and the Ombudsman’s report that questions the Interior’s actions in the tragedy that occurred at the Melilla fence last June and in which dozens of people died.
The PSOE has knocked down together with PP, Vox and Ciudadanos the request of a parliamentary investigation commission promoted by United We Can and the rest of the coalition allies. The confederal group has thrown a cable by preventing the appearance of Sánchez that, in that case, the conservatives wanted in Congress – and that they have not requested in the Senate, where Alberto Núñez Feijóo has his seat.
It is a partial victory because the pressure will not cease on a delicate matter that generates tensions within the coalition. For the moment, the Minister of the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, will have to appear on November 30 and the deputies will be able to access the images of the tragedy. The partners and also the PP accuse the head of the Interior of lying about what happened while Moncloa strives to transfer all its support to a minister who was already on a tightrope in the latest government reshuffle.
Despite the fact that the controversy over embezzlement, the downward revisions to the “only yes is yes” law and, to a lesser extent, the Melilla tragedy have tarnished the president’s international agenda in Bali (Indonesia) and South Korea South, as has happened on previous occasions, Sánchez’s maxim is to go game by game and, surviving, he sees how the polls begin to stop the coup of the Socialists.
