Middle East, USA, Russia and Iran after Al Assad

It is a time for maximum caution and great prudence on the part of the Western foreign ministries. The unexpected fall of Al Assad is good news for the Syrian people, but we must not forget who has led it: Hayat Tahrir Alsham (Movement for the Liberation of the Levant), branch of Alqaeda until 2016; whose leader, Abu Muhammad Al Julani, is an old acquaintance of Al Qaeda, for whom the US has already put a price on his head: 10 million dollars in 2017.

USA and Israel

The map of the Middle East that Trump left with the Abraham Accords is outdated. The terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023 initiated an alteration of the regional table, with a disproportionate response in Gaza, a military intervention in Lebanon, a Red Sea with serious threats from the Houthis, the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, Nasrallah in Beirut, and Yahyia Sinwar in Gaza; a Netanyahu persecuted by the International Criminal Court, and if that were not enough, the sudden fall of the Al Asad dynasty, after 50 years in power, and after having been readmitted to the Arab League after 10 years of repudiation. For those of us who are dedicated to international relations, the current panorama in the Middle East is simply unusual.

Yesterday Trump already advanced his position by X by stating that the US should not play any role in this war “which is not ours.” One would have to be naive to believe that the US is going to remain on the sidelines, due to the implications for Israel’s security of this change, having affiliates of Al Qaeda at the gates of the Golan Heights. In fact, Netanyahu has already gone ahead, deploying his army in the demilitarized zone separating Israel from Syria.

Additionally, President Biden last night ordered the bombing of several Islamic State enclaves in Syria. Tulsi Gabbard, nominated to be Trump’s future intelligence director, already warned in the pre-campaign of the danger of those who took power yesterday, recalling their terrorist affiliation.

Trump faces a very complex Middle East region in which he will have no choice but to respond to the challenges that arise, with the defense of Israel being his priority. The creation of a future Palestinian state remains in question, while the map that Netanyahu presented to the United Nations Assembly is going from being merely aspirational to premonitory.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance

The fall of Al Assad is a death blow to the “Axis of Resistance” formed by Iran and its militias. Hezbollah, which has been key to Al Assad’s survival, is at its worst. The fall of Assad disables its main supply chain (weapons, etc.) between Lebanon and Syria (the Bekaa Valley). Furthermore, it represents the breaking of the territorial continuity of the axis (between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon).

Iran has avoided entering into an open conflict with the US and Israel, using its offspring in the region. If Trump’s arrival was already bad news for Iran, the fall of the Al Assad dynasty further worsens its prospects in the region. We may be facing the end of the axis of resistance. Khamenei already has serious reasons to consider ending his aspirations, and like Putin, his priority is the survival of his regime.

Russia

Russia is suffering great attrition in the war in Ukraine. The fall of Al Assad is a serious blow for Putin in the Middle East. Everything indicates that Putin has had to make harsh concessions for his political survival, such as letting the Syrian regime fall, losing influence in the Middle East in order to opt for an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, and therefore, its continuity in the power. Its strong presence in Syria and the Sahel has been a great challenge to Western interests, and its departure from Syria opens a new horizon. It would not be surprising if Trump brokered a peace between Russia and Ukraine and for this to be one of the conditions. Just yesterday we saw rapprochements between Trump and Zelensky in Paris.

The fall of Al Assad opens a period of great uncertainty for the future of Syria, and raises tensions in the Middle East region and globally. Maximum caution and prudence.