Mexico is already doing the math on how Trump’s tariffs would affect it. And they look disturbing

Mexico is one of the countries that exports the most in the world. With a 2.5% share of the global market in 2023, it is not only one of the big players today, but the largest exporter of products to the United States. Tariffs and the technological war between the United States and China have caused Mexico to take over from the Asian country, but it is something that can change at the stroke of a pen.

The reason? The duty of the 25% that Donald Trump could impose on his main trading partners. And that is something that would put Mexico’s 10 most important exports to the United States in check.

The threat. Trump has several countries in his sights. China of course, with new tariffs. Also Europe, but its neighbors Mexico and Canada are not immune to threats either. Between the three, they account for more than 43% of United States imports and, specifically, Mexico took the lion’s share of the pie with 15.4% of them.

In this trade war 2.0, the threat is direct and something that the tycoon and future president seeks to stop is, among other things, the arrival of illegal immigrants, but it also seems throw blames Mexico and Canada for the fentanyl epidemic on the streets of some American cities.

“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily resolve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until they do, it is time for them to pay a very high price.” Trump commented.

TOP 10 exports. It is not clear that Trump will impose the tariffs, but just in case, countries are already preparing. Not in vain, if we look at the graph prepared by BBC in which, with data from the Mexican Ministry of Economy, the 10 main exports from Mexico to the United States are presented. They are the following:

Slap on the economy. For Mexico, high tariffs would be a hard blow because eight out of every ten products manufactured in Mexico are sent to its northern neighbor. Apart from those that appear in the table, there are industries such as furniture (9.4 billion dollars), fruits and vegetables (12 billion dollars), alcoholic beverages such as beer or tequila (3.5 billion dollars) or bread (2.36 billion dollars) that depend largely on that foreign trade.

worse for them. Marcelo Ebrard is the Secretary of Economy of Mexico and, a few days ago, he stated that this would be serious for the country, but also for the United States itself. He described a future with those 25% tariffs as “a shot in the foot” for some industries and considers that, when Trump says he is going to put a 25% tariff on Mexico, what he is really saying is “we are going to put a tax of 25% to the most important North American companies in the world because they produce in Mexico”.

He spoke, above all, about the automobile industry, one of the commercial muscles between both countries. Ebrard commented that 88% of the pickups Americans (a type of vehicle that they love) is manufactured in Mexico, mostly belonging to the three main American groups (GM, Ford and Stellantis) and that these tariffs would cause the price for the American buyer to increase by about 3,000 dollars per unit.

Reaching out. Apart from Marcelo, the current president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, also spoke about this matter. He commented that there are two alternatives: create a strong and competitive region to compete against others or start a tariff war. What is clear is that they would not sit idly by if the United States begins the battle:

“If they give us a tariff, we will give another and Canada another. It will be a never-ending contest,” Sheinbaum commented. Furthermore, both she and the Mexican Foreign Minister they spoke recently with Donald Trump to address those reasons that concern the American leader, such as the strategy of both countries for the phenomenon of migration and measures to stop the consumption of fentanyl.

Truncating China’s plans. The US protectionist strategy is clear, but Trump’s plans, although aggressive, are part of a series of actions that the United States is already carrying out. An example is Biden’s final outrage against China, a new and brutal blow to its semiconductor industry, and apart from the immigration crises, a possible explanation for Musk’s aggressive intentions with Mexico may be the alliance between the country and China.

Trade between the two has skyrocketed in 2024 and China’s plans to use Mexico as the gateway for its products into the United States are known, something that would be much more complicated with tariffs. In any case, we will see what happens when Trump occupies the White House chair and if his first months in office become a tariff storm with… everyone.

Image | Stan Shebs

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