Market expects CPI of 12.59% for May

tonight the Dane will release the result of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Mayand market expectations suggest that the indicator will continue with the downward trend which he already showed in April.

(See: Banrep’s new calendar to disclose interest rates).

In the In the last survey of Expectations of the Bank of the Republic, the analysts indicated that the monthly variation would be an average of 0.61%, with a range between 0.36% and 0.80%.

With this panorama, the expectation is that the annual data for May will drop to around 12.59%, according to the Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey, after the figure of 12.82% that it presented in its annual variation for the month of April.

in line with this estimate is Scotiabank Colpatriawhich expects a data of 0.65% for inflation in May, which would leave annual inflation at 12.6%.

“We think that the data may be even lower, since we are seeing that the pressures on food prices are increasingly decreasing, and that the producer price index already has negative variations in annual terms and in addition to the rate exchange rate, which has been appreciating significantly”, highlighted Sergio Olarte, the bank’s chief economist.

In BBVA Research, on the contrary, the expectation is somewhat higher. For May, the entity expects monthly inflation to be 0.73% and annual inflation to be 12.7%.

(See: Transportation and rentals will continue to put pressure on inflation).

“The main pressure in May will come from the transportation division, marked by the $600 increase in gasoline. To this will be added pressures in the division of miscellaneous goods and services and restaurants and hotels”, highlighted Laura Peña, BBVA Research economist for Colombia.

On the other hand, below the average, is Itaú, whose projection is 0.54% for the monthly data and 12.49% for the annual.

According to Carolina Monzón, manager of economic research at Itaú despite the monthly projection, which has a “downward pressure in food”, other items such as “transportation and housing will remain high avoiding a more rapid correction of annual inflation”.

(See: How much can high inflation impact entrepreneurs?).

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