Macron seeks a “coherent coalition” with the non-radical left after defeating the far right

During the Fifth Republic, new governments, born from absolute majorities, took office immediately. This will not be the case this time. The President of the Republic will take his time in choosing a Prime Minister. Emmanuel Macronusually so talkative, did not want to speak last night. But those close to him made it known that he will try to form “a coherent coalition.”

That is to say, without the extreme right or the extreme left. Neither Marine Le Pen -defeated when it seemed that it was approaching the doors of power- nor Jean-Luc Mélechon – whose dissenters are the largest component of the New Popular Front coalition – are invited to the party. Marginalizing the former is only a matter of will. Dodging the tribune of the left will require more time and science.

The first thing is easy because The Constitution does not impose any term on the President of the RepublicThe legislative election system, a two-round majority system, was designed to produce absolute majorities. Right-wing or left-wing. The president can appoint whomever he wants. Although he naturally chooses the leader of the winning side and it is he who claims the confidence of the lower house.

That is why the Elysee announced last night that The president will wait for the constitution of the Assembly to decideThe first clear date is July 18. On that day, the 501 deputies elected this Sunday plus the 76 who won the seat in the first round seven days ago will elect the president of the Assembly. To do so, an absolute majority is needed in the first two attempts, but a simple majority is enough in the third.

Macron will be testing the waters. But it is more than likely that Paris will host the Olympic Games, which open on July 27, with a caretaker government. Macron’s political credibility is at rock bottom. Last night all political leaders criticized him mercilessly. Including his current prime minister, Attal, or his distant predecessor, Edouard Philippewho, having been emancipated, did not hesitate to criticise the President’s unexpected decision to dissolve the Assembly in response to the crushing victory of the extreme right in the European elections of 9 June. Less than a month ago.

A month that seems like a century. Such is the political earthquake unleashed in France. Although at the time of sending this chronicle there were still no definitive results, the new National Assembly must look very much like this count made by Ifop for The Figaro.

The New Popular Front will have 182 deputiesOf these, a slight majority are members of La France Insoumise (LFI). Its natural leader (who did not stand for election) is Melénchon and in the European Parliament they form a group with Unidas Podemos. The other large part of the Popular Front are from the Socialist Party (among them François Hollande, former President of the Republic) and finally the ecologists make up the Front with about 30 deputies.

A dozen communists will have to choose who they will form a group with, since they are not enough on their own. The left wing of the chamber is completed by another dozen deputies, dissidents from the main families, regionalists or independents. In the dissolved Assembly they had 149 deputies.

The presidential majority had 250 seats in the dissolved Assembly. Now it will be 168. Of these, 107 to 112 will be members of Renaissance (supporters of Macron), 20 centrists from the Modem group led by François Bayrou and 23 activists from Horizonte of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. The group is completed by 14 deputies not belonging to any of the three families.

The third group of the Assembly is that of National Regrouping and his allies of defector Eric Ciotti, of The Republicanswhich won 143 seats. Marine Le Pen’s party is the largest party in the new Assembly. Jordan Bardellla, the party’s president, is a member of the European Parliament. Previously, they had 88 seats.

Finally, the right, which is homologated with the European PP, has survived the dissolution and the takeover bid by the extreme right. There will be 63 deputies, two more than in the previous legislature.

Last night, among analysts, pessimism prevailed and the France lacks a tradition of political compromise to form coalition governments As in Germany, the logical conclusion is that no one seems capable of leading an executive. This should lead to a technical government. And to new elections that cannot be called before a year.

The future of France and the French is uncertain. But what was clear last night is that The new government will not be led by Bardella, Mélenchon or Attal.