The second term of Emmanuel Macron as president of the French Republic he began with the outbreak of war in Ukraine and he has not been able to straighten himself since then. Able to overcome the obstacles of his first five years such as violent demonstrations of the “yellow vests” or the distancing with the United States, a product of the commercial stab that the Biden administration dealt by getting into the middle of a very lucrative agreement to sell nuclear submarines to Australia, the leader of the ‘En Marche!’ movement. seems now in a dead end.
The blow received with the defeat of his party in the elections legislative elections last June – mitigated thanks to the French constituency system and an excellent second round – just after the European elections left the centrist force in an uncomfortable position, without a clear successor and with its hands tied in the National Assembly. Not even the agreement with the more moderate wing of Les Republicains, which served to place the Gaullist Michel Barnier in the post of prime minister, has served to calm the waters and give stability to the country.
The union of the extremes -the left of Jean-Luc Melenchon and the right of Marine Le Pen- seems called to overthrow Barnier this Wednesday in an unprecedented motion of censure in France. The New Popular Front and National Regrouping consider that the government’s recourse to article 49.3 of the constitution to approve the new Social Security budget is the straw that breaks the camel’s back… although, deep down, the decision had been seen coming for a long time. In fact, what seems excessively liberal to one side, seems excessively liberal to the other side. excessively protectionist“punitive”, in the words of Le Pen.
The objective is none other than to erode Macron’s image and force him to appoint a prime minister from the majority force, something that had always been done during the Fifth Republic. In this way, the left could achieve the legislative government – although, again, in a huge minority – and the extreme right could take advantage of that minority to wear down the one who seems to be his greatest rival right now in the face of the 2027 presidential elections. Macron will have to decide in the coming days, since it is his prerogative, What future do you want for France?.
Focused on European security
For now, the President of the Republic seems more focused on foreign policy and affirming the position of France within the European Union and of the European Union within the current turbulent geopolitical map. As leader of the sole nuclear power in the UnionMacron has shown himself from the beginning as the least permeable to Russian threats and has on several occasions asked his European allies to think about rearm and protect themselves without needing to depend on the United States.
French President Emmanuel Macron during the awards ceremony for the “Talents des Cites” competition at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France.
Reuters
If there is a country that has stood out since World War II for its anti-americanismdespite the annual memory of the landing in Normandy, that has been France. It is within its political and cultural idiosyncrasy. Macron has been trying for some time to establish a moderate autonomy with respect to American foreign policies, especially anticipating the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House, with his isolationist tendencies regarding Europe and his confessed admiration for Vladimir Putin and his autocratic regime.
Trump and Macron didn’t exactly end well after the Republican’s first term, despite a very effusive start between the two. The American did not like that in 2018 Macron already hinted at the need for a European army – an intention he shares, for example, with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell – while at the same time France failed to comply with the requirement to contribute 2% of its GDP to military defense items. He will have liked even less the insistence with which Macron has declared that Biden, and then Harris, were his favorite candidates in the last elections.
Objetivo: agradar a Trump
Ahora bien, si algo hay que reconocerle al presidente francés es su coraje para coger el toro por los cuernos. Frente a la debilidad interior y anticipándose a una posible debilidad exterior, ha decidido afrontar la nueva presidencia de Donald Trump ahondando en el punto débil del multimillonario: el ego. Así, Macron ha decidido invitar a Trump a la inauguración de la nueva Catedral de Notre Dame, restaurada en tiempo récord después del pavoroso incendio de 2019. Será el primer acto semioficial de Trump como presidente electo y una verdadera anomalía, pues lo normal habría sido invitar a Biden.
De esta manera, Macron se adelanta a todos los demás líderes europeos y muestra la mano tendida al nuevo presidente, con el que tendrá que colaborar durante los próximos dos años y medio. Sabedor de que el enfrentamiento directo no suele funcionar bien con Trump, parece haber elegido un enfoque más diplomático y lisonjero. Al fin y al cabo, nada le gusta más al millonario que el hecho de que alguien le haga la pelota. Si es un gran líder mundial, muchísimo más, por supuesto.
Otra cosa es si servirá para algo. Queda un mes y medio para que tome posesión de su cargo y Trump ya ha prometido “desatar el infierno” en Oriente Próximo y ha nombrado un enviado especial a Ucrania para negociar algo muy parecido a una rendición con escasas garantías. Lo malo y lo bueno de Trump es que es un hombre imprevisible, que tan pronto amenaza con borrar del mapa a Corea del Norte con misiles nucleares como se reúne en tono más que cordial con Kim Jong-Un en cuestión de meses.
Tal vez, pensará Macron, si le hace entender la necesidad de mantener el nexo atlántico, al menos Europa podrá ganar tiempo. El asunto es si sabrá aprovecharlo cuando los bárbaros no dejan de llamar a las puertas, incluidas las del Elíseo.
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