Lula’s victory opens a new stage in relations with the US

Washington (AFP) – Although diplomatic relations are inscrutable in themselves, that between the United States and Brazil is in any case “pragmatic and a matter of state regardless of who is in power,” says Valentina Sader, associate director of the Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America of the Atlantic Council, in Washington.

Change of direction?

Given Lula’s “very pragmatic and conciliatory character,” the bilateral relationship will be “more predictable and stable” than with far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, estimates researcher Isabelle C. Somma de Castro, from the University of Sao Paulo.

Lula is likely to focus on fighting climate change. “It would be an important way to deepen cooperation” with the government of US President Joe Biden, “and a point of potential leadership for both countries globally,” says Sader.

If we get an idea of ​​what its presidency could be in 2023 in light of what its previous mandates were, Brazil will prioritize ties “within the region and with the entire global south, working closely with the United States, Europe, China,” says Sader.

As for the multilateral organizations -he explains- it is likely that Lula will ask for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, and in general, seek the support of the United States to increase his representation in the institutions, such as the Inter-American Bank of Development Bank (IDB), the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

From Biden’s perspective, Lula is “the best alternative” despite the fact that both he and the Brazilian left “are not great admirers of the United States (like the Latin American left in general),” says Carlos Gustavo Poggio, professor of political science at the Berea College, in Kentucky, United States.

“That said – he adds – I don’t expect bilateral relations to change much (…) unless there is some kind of institutional breakdown, in which case the United States would distance itself from Brazil.”

With Lula there may be “greater affinity in relation to issues related to Biden’s agenda, such as the need for investments in infrastructure, attention to climate change, environmental preservation and the confrontation with institutional racism,” says Brazilian Paulo Abrao, former secretary executive of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR).

At a commercial level, the experts consulted rule out significant changes.

Possible pitfalls

They also agree that Lula will try to cement relations with China, a country that Washington considers the main challenge for its security in the coming decades.

In the past Lula focused his foreign policy on strategic relations and China is Brazil’s main trading partner. But the relations “would also be pragmatic”, considers Sader, who does not rule out greater cooperation with the Asian country in multilateral forums, such as the emerging economies of the BRICS and the G20.

On a personal level, the fact that Biden is a Democrat does not predetermine a good relationship.

It should be remembered, Somma de Castro points out, that the leftist leader got along better with Republican President George W. Bush than with Democrat Barack Obama.

And President Dilma Roussef, who succeeded Lula, suffered telephone taps when the Democrats were in power, which made the Workers’ Party (PT) “very suspicious” of them, he adds.

Migration could be another point of friction, since Lula could change or interrupt US flights that bring back irregular Brazilian migrants because “progressives see it as a humiliating action,” he explains.

new wave of left

The leftist front in the region is strengthened by Lula’s victory, but “this will not affect long-term relations” because “we have had waves of right and left and there have been no substantial changes and this is especially true in the case from Brazil,” says Poggio.

However, according to Sader, it could bring with it “a possible non-alignment with respect” to relations with Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.

“There may be differences in style between Lula and Biden in terms of the best strategies to deal with governments with autocratic tendencies in the region,” Abrao abounds, insisting that one cannot speak of a single left, but of “different currents.” of progressive governments.

For Somma de Castro, Lula is more center-left and will be forced to focus “on internal issues, such as boosting the economy and rebuilding social programs.”

Reservations on Ukraine

If there is any change with respect to Brasilia’s approach to the war in Ukraine, “it would be minimal,” Sader predicts.

Brazil, which depends on Russian fertilizers, “will continue to bet on peaceful negotiations to find a solution to the conflict through diplomatic channels,” he adds.

This clashes with the interests of Washington, which wants some Latin American countries to raise their voices against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

In an interview with Time Magazine this year, Lula noted that Volodimir Zelensky “wanted the war” and that the Ukrainian president is “as responsible as (Russian Vladimir) Putin for the war.” Lula also criticized Biden and the European Union for not having done what was necessary to avoid the conflict.