This Sunday, early in the afternoon, Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva will assume the presidency of a Brazil for the third time that, unlike the Latin American giant that advanced steadily at the beginning of the century, when the socialist was installed for the first time time in the Alvorada Palace; now he seems to be cracking as a consequence of an increasingly polarized society.
The climate in Brazil has been getting worse since the economic crisis began to hit the country, in 2013, when an increase in public transport fares sparked a wave of protests with which millions of citizens blamed the situation directly on a government – at that time led by Dilma Rousseff – involved in corruption cases and that had mortgaged the country with the organization of a World Cup and an Olympic Games in just two years.
“The Workers’ Party, which was more stained by corruption than Lula himself, must navigate treacherous waters: it cannot be seen running the country,” recently commented to voice of america Lauri Tähtinen, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a nonprofit policy research organization in Washington.
“The last time, from 2003 to 2013, the PT government benefited from the high prices of raw materials and the growing Chinese demand,” he said.
In 2016, the protests against the government of the Workers’ Party (PT), already entangled in the Odebrecht scandal, were repeated. Finally, Rousseff was fired and his position was occupied by Michel Temer, until then vice-president; but in reality, it was another figure that began to gain relevance in those days: Jair Bolsonaro, at that time a deputy and, today, the outgoing president of the country.
four years of antagonism
Bolsonaro ended up ascending to the presidency in 2019. Just a few months earlier, in April 2018, he had turned himself in to the authorities, after being convicted of corruption and money laundering. Finally the Supreme Court ended up annulling the sentence for irregularities in the judicial process, and in 2021 all charges were dropped.
The conservative Bolsonaro and the progressive Lula are also two antagonistic figures who have clashed on countless issues, including social policies, the environment, the legitimacy of institutions, foreign relations and even the fight against the pandemic.
Throughout his presidency, Bolsonaro has promoted the exploitation of the Amazon, reduced social spending, questioned the severity of the pandemic and led disinformation campaigns, the last of them, regarding the legitimacy of the presidential elections. Having unsuccessfully tried to challenge the results, he has yet to concede defeat, although he has begun the process of transferring power.
On the contrary, in recent weeks Lula has called for respecting the institutions and defending democracy, in addition to appoint Marina Silva as future Minister of the Environment, with the clear purpose of stopping deforestation in the Amazon, which has increased by around 60%, according to data from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE).
Lula will face a totally destroyed country and dismantled institutions.”
“Lula will face a totally destroyed country and dismantled institutions. Lula will have a broader role at the global level, based on his potential to negotiate. There are high expectations for the first 100 days. After any destruction there are always expectations about how the country will be rebuilt,” said Hussein Kalaout, Brazil’s former special secretary for strategic affairs and a researcher at Harvard University, during a meeting organized by the Atlantic Council think tank in late November. in washington.
Some still harbor hope, since the story of Lula’s return to Brasilia is -without a doubt- a story of redemption, after the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) has been able to return to the political front line after going to jail.
A sign of this is that in recent days, the yellow color that represents the Brazilian soccer team seems to have ceased to be another element of confrontation, which identified Bolsonaro’s supporters against the petistas dressed in red.
“Before the World Cup I sold, on average, about six blues and four yellows out of every 10,” he assured a few days ago PA Elias Gaspar, a t-shirt seller. “Now they are almost all yellow.”
But the return of Lula is also a story of protests and clashesunusual bomb threatsfrom unfounded accusations of punching electoral and even calls for army interventionin a country where many still remember the years of the military dictatorship, the Fifth Brazilian Republic, between 1961 and 1985.
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the shadow of terrorism
The latest incident took place just a few days ago, when a citizen who was camped out with other bolsonaristas in Brasilia demanding a military intervention, was arrested for planting an explosive device at the international airport of the capital, with the purpose -according to the authorities- of sowing chaos on the day of the inauguration.
“Yesterday’s serious events in Brasilia show that the so-called ‘patriotic’ camps have become incubators for terrorists,” he claimed Brazil’s incoming Justice Minister Flávio Dino via Twitter on Sunday. “There will be no amnesty for the terrorists, their supporters and financiers.”
Lula needs some quick political victories.”
President Bolsonaro reacted by stating that there was no justification for what he described as an attempted “terrorist act”, although he wanted to distance himself from the detainee’s motivations: “The man had ideas that are not shared by any citizen, but now they classify him as bolsonarista“.
The police, however, have indicated that the words of the still president were the trigger that led George Washington de Oliveira Sousa to act.
This same Thursday, the Federal Police reported several raids in different parts of the country, as well as the arrest of four people, as part of the investigations into an alleged coup attempt.
Despite this climate of tension, the reality is that Lula does not have solid support, so he will have to seek a consensus with formations of the center and the right. It is probable that even she will have to end up agreeing with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL), which has a greater representation in both houses of Congress, with 14 senators and 99 deputies.
However, this last scenario seems even more complicated after Bolsonaro will leave the country this Friday and set course for Florida with the purpose of avoiding the transfer of powers.
“Lula needs some quick political victories that also convincingly establish that his administration is a dramatic departure from that of his predecessor,” he concluded in statements to the VOA Emilio M. Bruna, professor of tropical ecology and Latin American studies at the University of Florida.
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