‘Lula’ in China, a visit with multiple stakes for Brazil

First modification: 04/13/2023 – 01:44

With a four-day visit to China, which begins this Wednesday, April 12, and a meeting scheduled for Friday with Xi Jinping, Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva continues the intense diplomatic marathon that began with his inauguration on January 1. .

Thus, the Brazilian president intends to relaunch a solid relationship between China and Brazil, with important bets. At once, seeks to mark the return of the Latin American country to the international sceneafter an isolation derived from the Bolsonaro era, the far-right ex-president.

“Lula wants to reintegrate Brazil into world affairs and show that it can play a relevant role as a mediator in a multipolar order,” explains Gaspard Estrada, a political scientist at Sciences Po.

“This is consistent with the Brazilian political tradition, which has always favored multilateralism. Brazil intends to play its cards well and be a central player in international relations.”

Brazil returns to the international scene

Since his inauguration, ‘Lula’ —who is aspiring for a seat on the UN Security Council and will chair the G20 next year— has been to Argentina and Uruguay, and has met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz , and US President Joe Biden. He is now in China, where he is expected to discuss Ukraine with Xi, among other matters.

The Brazilian leader intends to propose a “peace plan” to Ukraine and Russia developed with China and other “neutral” countries in the conflict. Adding to the Chinese ambiguity, he condemned Vladimir Putin’s use of force — without sanctioning it — while suggesting that Russia withdraw from Ukraine but retain Crimea.

This intermediate position, contrary to the Western point of view, is shared by many countries of the Global South and, for the moment, has been rejected by both Russia and Ukraine.

Consolidate as one of the leaders of the Global South

“It is clear that Lula and Xi intend to work together on the Ukrainian issue, and to take a different line from the West, based on their status as ‘neutral’ countries,” said Christophe Ventura, research director at the Institute for Strategic and International Relations. (IRIS), and author of ‘Géopolitique de l’Amérique Latine’, published by Eyrolles (Paris, 2022).

If this were successful, it would reinforce ‘Lula’, who is well aware that he cannot propose a peace plan without China, but wants to use his capacity for dialogue with the whole world to consolidate himself as one of the leaders of the Global South.

The Brazilian leader also intends to reactivate the Brics, that disparate group of emerging countries with a growing role, which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and whose summit is scheduled for next summer in Pretoria.

“Since the beginning of the conflict, these countries have put aside their differences and have united, politically and economically, at a separate pole from the United States and the European Union. Brazil understands this and wants to mark its role,” says Mylène Gaulard, an economics professor at the University of Grenoble and a specialist in Sino-Brazilian relations.

new silk roads

The economy will also be at the center of Lula’s visit, since China has become Brazil’s largest economic partner, with a third of its exports. A delegation of 200 Brazilian businessmen —much larger than the one present during Lula’s visit to Washington in February— preceded the Brazilian president to China at the end of March, and negotiated some twenty trade agreements.

In particular, the two countries decided to trade directly in their national currencies, without the dollar. As Gaulard points out, it is a nod to the United States, but also a way of protecting oneself from the economic instability of Western countries and the volatility of the dollar.

This close relationship could also be added to the entry of Brazil into the New Silk Roads, the pharaonic Chinese investment project. It is a way for Lula to strengthen trade between the two countries and develop investments in their territory, at a time when Brazil is going through a difficult economic situation and its growth prospects are modest in 2023.

If the talks come to fruition, Brazil will join the twenty Latin American countries that are already participating in the Chinese project.

This text was adapted from its original in French.