Brasilia (AFP) – The elected president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva, and his collaborators begin this Monday to shape the future of what will be the leftist’s third government, under the watchful eye of the market and the international community.
‘Lula’, 77, returns to work after a week off in the state of Bahia (northeast) with the future first lady, Rosangela da Silva, after an intense electoral campaign.
This Monday he meets with his team in Sao Paulo and is expected to travel to Brasilia on Tuesday to closely monitor the transition and the negotiations with Congress, two allies of the leftist informed AFP.
He also plans to meet with the head of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira.
The ‘Lula’ transition team will work in the offices of the Banco do Brasil Cultural Center in the capital.
Under the coordination of the elected vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, he will begin to receive information about the State delivered by the administration of the far-right Jair Bolsonaro.
The elected government is facing an immediate challenge: to guarantee resources to fulfill campaign promises, such as the maintenance of Aid Brazil, formerly Bolsa Familia, at 600 reais (118 dollars).
“We cannot start 2023 without Aid, without a real increase in the minimum wage. It was promised to the people at the polls,” said Gleisi Hoffmann, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT).
Without sufficient resources in the budget, Lula’s allies are negotiating with parliament the approval of a constitutional amendment project that allows spending to be increased, circumventing the “expenditure ceiling” rule.
The project must be approved before December 15.
Only for Aid Brazil, with a promised bonus of 150 reais (30 dollars) for families with children up to 6 years old, 70,000 million reais would be necessary, almost 14,000 million dollars.
‘Lula’ prepares for a fight with Congress
Bolsonaro’s conservative Liberal Party will be the largest bench in both chambers in 2023, a tougher opposition than that led by the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), during Lula’s first two terms.
But leaders of the “Centrao”, parties that are usually allied with the government, have quickly shown a willingness to dialogue.
The leftist, president between 2003 and 2010, defeated Bolsonaro in the ballot, in a campaign that focused on the promise of a return to past prosperity, without many clues about how he intends to govern.
Now he will face “the same challenge from the Latin American left” that recently came to power, said political scientist Leandro Consentino.
That is: “How to reconcile fiscal responsibility with a long-awaited social agenda”, in a post-pandemic context of inflation and possible global recession, added this professor from the Insper institute in Sao Paulo.
The market, in suspense
The economic reality of Brazil is far from the boom of the 2000s, when ‘Lula’ was able to finance his social policies by surfing the ‘boom’ of raw materials.
He promised to reconcile “fiscal, social and sustainable responsibility,” but he keeps the market in suspense over the definition of who will be his finance minister, an uncertainty that extends to all portfolios.
Unlike Bolsonaro, who created a “superministry” of Economy, Lula plans to split the portfolio into three: Finance, Planning and Industry and Commerce.
“The market will react according to the names that make up the group,” said Laureno.
Fernando Haddad, former Minister of Education, and Aloizio Mercadante, coordinator of the ‘Lula’ government program, could land in the economic area, the Brazilian press speculates.
The COP27, international preview
The former metallurgical worker promised to combat deforestation in the Amazon that skyrocketed under Bolsonaro and give greater prominence to environmental protection, a way to rebuild Brazil’s prestige abroad, according to analysts.
Before taking office, he will travel to Sharm el Sheikh (Egypt) and will participate in COP27, which he will arrive on the 14th, said the same sources, after being invited by the country’s president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
“The climate issue is now a strategic priority at the highest level,” former Environment Minister Marina Silva, who will accompany Lula to Egypt, told Folha de S. Paulo in an interview.
Silva is expected to take over that portfolio again.
Protecting the Amazon will be key to “recovering the country’s credibility in the international community” and unlocking trade agreements such as the European Union and Mercosur, said André César, an analyst at the Hold consultancy.
