The authoritarian Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko celebrated 30 years in power today thanks to the political, economic and military support of the Kremlin, which has turned the former Soviet republic into its private protectorate by directly involving it in the war in Ukraine and in its nuclear antagonism with NATO.
“Lukashenko does not rule Belarus, he only manages its territory. All decisions are made in the Kremlin,” he told Efe exiled opposition figure Pavel Latushko, former Minister of Culture.
In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated his faithful ally on Saturday with a telegram in which he highlighted his enormous contribution to friendly relations and the creation of the State Union with Russia, an integration mechanism that paves the way for the transfer of sovereignty to its northern neighbor.
The Stalinist Farmer
Lukashenko runs his country as if it were the state farm (sovkhoz) he headed for seven years before taking power on 20 July 1994. And at 69, he is already Europe’s longest-serving leader.
With the fight against corruption as his banner, Lukashenko won the elections and established a system in which the KGB – the only former Soviet republic where the secret police retains its name – violently represses any hint of dissent.
“He came into office in the midst of deep social problems. Belarusians accepted a populist who promised solutions and was betting on an alliance with Russia,” the opposition leader explains.
Since then, he has earned the nickname of ‘Europe’s last dictator’, not in vain is his the only country on the continent where the death penalty is still applied.
Lukashenko was on the verge of being ousted in mass protests against electoral fraud in 2020, but he held on thanks to Putin’s invaluable help and now, despite not being recognised by the West, he plans to run for re-election again in 2025.
“Neither the Americans, nor the Poles, nor the Europeans. We don’t give a damn about their opinion, but we are willing to listen to it. We work for the people,” he said on the eve of the election.
At Putin’s feet
The opposition in exile maintains that the regime is supported by three pillars: Putin, the fear and dependence of Belarusians on the paternalistic state and its quasi-planned economy, fueled by subsidized Russian hydrocarbons.
“Lukashenko is running something like the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. As in the days of the USSR, everything is agreed with Moscow. Foreign and defence policy is completely dependent on the Kremlin,” Latushko said.
As a sign of gratitude to Putin, Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for an advance into Ukraine in February 2022, making him an accomplice to the military campaign and an enemy of kyiv.
Then, under the pretext of the NATO threat, Moscow deployed tactical nuclear weapons as a deterrent, and Putin equated a possible aggression against Belarus with an attack on Russia.
The opposition claims that China has recently interfered in the honeymoon between Moscow and kyiv, and that the recent Shahed drone strikes in Belarus are a warning shot at Lukashenko not to give himself over to Beijing.
However, according to the opposition, while 97% of Belarusians are opposed to integration with Russia, more than 80% are against the participation of their army in the conflict.
“There is no such danger. The Belarusian people will not accept participation in the Russian aggression against Ukraine,” Latushko said confidently.
Totalitarian state
The opposition claims that Lukashenko has created a “totalitarian system” over the past 30 years, which has imprisoned tens of thousands of people; forced more than half a million into exile; closed down all independent media and liquidated the eleven legal political parties and some 1,660 NGOs.
According to Viasná (Spring), there are around 1,400 political prisoners in Belarusian prisons, including the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski, founder of the human rights organisation. At least six activists have died behind bars in the past two years.
In fact, Latushko revealed to Efe that the Public Prosecutor’s Office in Poland, where he is in exile, has opened an investigation into assassination attempts by a foreign secret service against him.
“We are seeing an intensification of subversive actions by Russians and Belarusians,” he said.
However, there is still hope, as an independent poll estimates that 65% of Belarusians in Europe’s last Stalinist stronghold support democracy.
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