Like 6 years ago, Maduro exposes himself to another isolation in the face of a world “fatigued” by the crisis in Venezuela

The inauguration of a new presidential term in Venezuela, in the midst of a deep political and human rights crisis, presents the umpteenth challenge for the international community regarding the South American nation: who will governments recognize as the legitimate head of state: the socialist Nicolás Maduro or his opposition rival Edmundo González?

This Friday is the key date for the executive powers of America and the rest of the planet to define their positions on who they consider to be the president of Venezuela, the second country with the largest displacement of citizens, with 7.9 million migrants.

This January 10, Maduro hopes to begin a third six-year term after having been proclaimed winner of the July 28 presidential elections with just over 51% of the votes, against the 43% officially obtained by the candidate González Urrutia, supported by the opposition Unitary Platform and the leader María Corina Machado.

However, the Venezuelan opposition claims to have won that vote with a lead of more than 36 percentage points over Maduro. To prove it, the anti-Chavista platform published copies of the minutes obtained in 85% of the electoral centers.

A group of countries, including the United States, supported these claims, recognizing González Urrutia as the winner, a septuagenarian former diplomat who agreed to be a candidate after the political disqualification of Machado, the favorite in the polls.

González Urrutia, exiled in Spain since September after leaving Venezuela denouncing pressure against him, including arrest, is currently on a tour of 5 countries in America to rally support, promising to assume the presidency of his country.

“The time has come for the definition,” said Machado this week, for his part, still in hiding, hours after committing to lead new protests in the streets of Caracas starting this Thursday, on the eve of the presidential swearing-in.

Maduro and his spokesmen, for their part, have described as “ridiculous” the recognition of several countries of González Urrutia as Venezuelan leader, recalling what happened in 2019.

Six years ago, dozens of governments rejected him as president because they considered that his re-election in 2018 was fraudulent and unconstitutionally called.

This time, the days prior to the protocol act that Maduro will lead on Friday in the National Assembly, in Caracas, have included the formal withdrawal of the Chilean ambassador on the grounds that there was a “fraud” and the breaking of diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Paraguay due to the manifest support and recognition of Asunción for González.

“Fatigued” community

The outlook in 2025 for Venezuela “presents challenges” for both Maduro and the opposition, “with different dynamics than the recognition crisis in 2019,” according to Geoff Ramsey, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, a United States think tank.

The expert warns in conversation with the Voice of America that the opposition faces “a more fragmented international environment and less interested in recognizing a parallel government again as they did in 2019,” despite questions about the election.

Unlike 2019, when dozens of governments recognized opposition parliamentary leader Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela, the international community “has shown signs of fatigue regarding the Venezuelan crisis,” according to Ramsey.

“Governments in Latin America and Europe are prioritizing their internal agendas or view the effectiveness of prolonged sanctions with skepticism,” he points out. “The phrase ‘we recognize States, not governments’ is increasingly common,” he emphasizes.

Maduro “does not have that legitimacy” that he will need to govern democratically due to the “difficulty” of his peers in recognizing an election without transparency, considers international relations expert and university professor Elsa Cardozo.

“The isolation will not be in terms of international scrutiny, but rather that it deprives them of opportunities to legitimize themselves and access economic resources” in multilateral organizations, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, he estimates.

The opposition also faces a “complex and nuanced” situation, despite the support of the world’s great democracies, Cardozo believes. “But the great difficulty is for Maduro, who is a de facto president, by force,” he told the VOA.

Who recognizes Maduro?

Countries with authoritarian governments, political and economic partners of Chavismo, have expressed their recognition and congratulations to Maduro for his official victory in last year’s elections. Among them are Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.

The governments of Türkiye, Serbia, a group of African and Caribbean countries, as well as nations of the Arab world also formally support the Chavista leader.

In Latin America, Maduro has the support of Cuba, Nicaragua and Honduras. According to the Venezuelan ruling party, more than 50 countries have recognized their electoral victory.

Who supports the opponent González Urrutia?

The United States has led the concert of hemispheric voices that rejected the proclamation of Maduro as the winner of the electoral contest and, instead, recognized González Urrutia as the candidate with the most votes in Venezuela.

President Joe Biden, who will leave the White House on the 20th of this month, received González Urrutia in the Oval Office, with whom he spoke for 45 minutes and whom he called “president-elect.”

In South America, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Ecuador have officially recognized González Urrutia as the winner of the July elections. The liberal Javier Milei even received him at the Casa Rosada in Buenos Aires days ago calling him “president.”

Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala and El Salvador, among others, have also expressed their congratulations to González as the winner of the presidential vote. Some of its leaders, such as the Salvadoran Nayib Bukele, denounced “fraud” in Venezuela a few hours after the official results of the elections were known.

The 27 countries of the European Union have criticized the lack of transparency of the elections, criticizing the absence of detailed data on the official results and warning that they will not recognize them, but they have not moved to recognize González Urrutia as president-elect as a bloc. The newspaper El País reported this month that the ambassadors of European nations will not attend Maduro’s presidential swearing-in.

Neutrality and ambiguity of others

The positions closest to diplomatic neutrality on the Venezuelan crisis have been those of the governments of Colombia and Brazil, neighboring nations of Venezuela and chaired by the leftists Gustavo Petro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

For months, both demanded the publication of the electoral records to verify them independently, which did not happen. This Wednesday, Petro said that he would not attend Maduro’s inauguration after the arrest of several activists critical of Chavismo in Venezuela.

Although he said that he could not recognize elections “that were not free,” he announced that he will not break diplomatic relations with a country to which Colombia is linked “by blood, culture and history.”

Mexico, which also demanded transparency in the election by publishing the minutes and which experienced its own presidential transition in the interim of the controversy in Venezuela, will send a delegate to Maduro’s presidential swearing-in, defends the “self-determination of the people” and He says that it is up to Venezuelans to “define” their ruler.

The case of Uruguay is also particular. Although President Luis Lacalle Pou recognized González as president-elect, a new head of state will take power in March. This is Yamandú Orsi, a left-wing politician who left the recognition of one or another ruler in Venezuela up in the air, despite his criticism of Maduro’s policies.

“The diplomatic relationship is complicated. It is a slow and working process (…) we have relations with countries that have nothing to do with our way of life and politics, and there is nothing new,” Orsi told the press, at the end of November.

The president of Bolivia, the leftist Luis Arce, politically confronted with one of Chavismo’s old allies, Evo Morales, said that he would not attend the presidential election in Venezuela due to a tight agenda, but that he would send “a representation.”

He clarified that he would not exercise any “interference” in Venezuelan affairs and that his official position on the Maduro government and the July elections would be revealed through his foreign ministry.

In the mouth of María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition has rejected the position of some governments of recognizing “States” and not “governments.” “It doesn’t work for Venezuelans,” he said.

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