Asia

LEBANON Le Drian resumes ‘mission impossible’ of Lebanon’s presidency

The two levels of institutional stagnation, internal and external, that prevent the appointment of the new head of state. The “Group of Five” (France, United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt) will meet on July 17 in Doha to seek a political solution. Christian parties continue to reject Sleiman Frangié, the candidate of an excessively armed movement (Hezbollah).

Beirut () – In these hours the countdown has begun for the return to Beirut of President Emmanuel Macron’s special envoy for Lebanon, former French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. A preliminary meeting is scheduled for July 17 prior to the return of the diplomat to Lebanon -on July 24- in Doha (Qatar) where the delegates of the group of five countries committed to the search for a political solution to the presidential crisis will meet.

On February 6, the representatives of the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar met for the first time in Paris to initiate a joint action that would end the vacancy in the leadership of the Lebanese State. However, neither the Americans nor the Saudis, says Le Monde, “got really involved” in the mission, “leaving France to the front line despite doubts about its options, which had first been directed at Sleiman.” Frangié, Hezbollah’s candidate. Qatar – continues Le Monde – is trying, so far without success, to impose the commander-in-chief of the army, General Joseph Aoun”.

Le Drian returns to the region three weeks after an initial visit on June 21, during which he met virtually all of Lebanon’s political, military and religious leaders, as well as civil society figures. Observers believe that he will have to return several times before presenting his proposals to Macron, at the end of a mission that seems “almost impossible”, according to the French press. The diplomat traveled to Saudi Arabia on July 10, where he discussed the results of his “listening mission” in Lebanon with royal court adviser Nizar Alaoula, who is also in charge of the Lebanese dossier.

On the domestic front, in the absence of a qualified parliamentary majority -as demonstrated by the twelve failed electoral calls since last November to elect a president- the paralysis is total. Hezbollah, which supports Northern leader Sleiman Frangié, rejects any presidential candidate who questions the military might he has acquired in decades of battle on Arab fronts, from Syria to Yemen to Iraq. On the other hand, the forces opposed to the pro-Iranian militias refuse to give Hezbollah a free hand. After supporting the candidacy of their own representative, the deputy Michel Mouawad, they now support that of former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, members of the “Party of God” and their allies block all electoral sessions so that the necessary quorum is not systematically reached before the second round of elections. They did it again on June 14 when Samir Geagea, a former Azour minister, had gotten 59 votes in the first round and could easily have been elected in the second if he had gotten just six more votes, to 65.

Paris hopes that a solution will be reached before the end of the summer because it considers that it is urgent to break the institutional deadlock in order to initiate the necessary reforms to contain the financial crisis and form a new government. It is also necessary to prevent the presidential vacancy from complicating the succession of the president of the Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salamé, whose term expires at the end of July, or that of the commander of the Armed Forces, General Joseph Aoun, next November.

The Lebanese Forces party, for its part, has so far been hostile to the efforts of France, which it criticizes for having supported, behind the scenes, since February, the candidacy of Sleiman Frangié, a Hezbollah man. Lebanese liberals consider this option, which Paris presented as “pragmatic”, with an establishment figure as president and a reformist profile as prime minister, as “interference”.

As the return of Le Drian approaches, the main representative of the Free Patriotic Movement (CPL) Gebran Bassil has just declared: “We have resumed the dialogue with Hezbollah with a view to a solution without preconditions”, although he remains always faithful, as the Lebanese Forces, to Azour’s candidacy. On his part, the Maronite Patriarch, Card. Beshara Raï, is aware of all the diplomatic and internal comings and goings and continues to defend the idea of ​​an international conference that proclaims the neutrality of Lebanon.



Source link