LEBANON Beirut, the ghost of the presidential vacancy

Just days before Aoun’s term expires, a fourth vote failed. Crossed vetoes prevail between the two blocs, the pro-Iranian one and the opposition ones. The game to prevent the quorum. The question was the central theme of the meeting between Macron and Pope Francis. The fear of drifting “into the unknown.”

Beirut () – There are only a few days left before Michel Aoun’s presidential term expires on October 31. Meanwhile, the struggle for political hegemony is in full swing: between Hezbollah and its Christian allies (CLP), on the one hand, and the opposition coalition Lebanese Forces-Progressive Socialist Party, which wants to block the way for the re-election of a president favorable to the pro-Iranian side. Today all real hope of seeing a new head of state elected has been lost. And the same thing happens with the possibility of consolidating and legitimizing the interim government of current Prime Minister Nagib Mikati, today limited to the management of current affairs.

On October 24, for the fourth time, the Lebanese deputies failed to elect Aoun’s successor. None of the opposing factions has the necessary votes -two thirds- for the appointment. However, both have the so-called “blocking third”: the 43 votes necessary to prevent the quorum (86 seats) required by law for the election. To this must be added the fact that, from the second vote, the Head of State can be appointed with an absolute majority of 65 votes, provided that the quorum is met. At the moment, no compromise is in sight between the parties, and the President of the Chamber of Deputies has not set an immediate date for a next session dedicated to voting.

When analyzing the elections for Ici-Beyrouth, political scientist Fady Rahmé, professor and strategy expert at Sciences-Po (Paris), explains that the election of a new president in Lebanon is linked to the regional and international context. And also to the behind-the-scenes struggles for influence in the region, led by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“The presidential elections”, stresses Rahmé, “must be the subject of a broader package of agreements”. The question is not ‘who will be the president’, but ‘what will this president do'”. According to the expert, “the information we have in this regard can be borrowed from three of the four architects of a solution to the Lebanese question”: the United States, France and Saudi Arabia (the fourth being Tehran).

At their meeting on September 21 in New York, on the sidelines of the 77th UN General Assembly, the representatives of these countries issued a joint statement, in which they defined the Taëf agreement as a “framework in which they can provide support to Lebanon.” The joint note goes on to explain that “Lebanon must implement the reforms requested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and organize the presidential elections within the constitutional deadlines.” The signatories maintain “the need for the Lebanese government to apply the provisions contained in resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701 and 2650 of the UN Security Council” […] and undertake to respect the Taëf Agreement, which allows to protect national unity and civil peace in Lebanon”.

Linked to the Taëf Agreement, Resolution 1559 specifically calls for “the disarmament and disbandment of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias.” For Rahmé, politics and economics are closely linked, “but politics prevails” and the key passage in this statement is: “The Taëf Agreement, sponsored by Saudi Arabia”. The political scientist concludes by warning that “we must not fool ourselves: without the support of the Western powers and the Arab oil states, Lebanon will not be able to rise again.”

The Middle East, and more specifically the Lebanese crisis, were on the agenda on October 24 during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Pope Francis. According to well-informed sources transmitted by the Parisian journalist Mona es-Saïd, the pontiff and the Elysée tenant agreed on the need to elect a new president within the constitutional deadlines, to avoid any risk of drifting “into the unknown”.