Le Pen would have come to power in alliance with the Gaullists

In comparison, the party of the current president of the republic received the support of 6.3 million voters, but won 168 deputies, 25 more than the National Grouping alone, with three and a half million fewer votes. For its part, the coalition of the New Popular Front (NFP), which includes La France Insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchonthe French Socialist Party and various left-wing ecological options, reached exactly 7 million votes, although it must be taken into account that the NFP had already obtained an absolute majority in 32 constituencies in the first round and had withdrawn some of its candidates. In the first round, it had obtained 9 million votes.

The huge advantage in seats of the centre-left (350 to 189 for the RN and The Republicansthe Gaullist party) is actually much smaller if we count the votes received in this second round: barely 800,000, or 3%. What is the reason for this imbalance? Undoubtedly the decision of Macron and Mélenchon to withdraw their candidates wherever one of the two might fight the forces of the far right.

Although the first studies were not at all clear that this request for votes from the centre to the left and from the left to the centre Even if it were to work, it has been fulfilled almost to the millimetre. Where Macron’s voter has had to swallow the toad of supporting the left or even the extreme left, anti-Atlanticist and anti-globalist, he has done so. And the same can be said, in reverse, of Mélenchon’s or Socialist Party’s voter.

The Right and the end of the “Republican Pact”

However, the same did not happen with the right, and this is where we must once again bring up the theory of the blanket that covers the feet but not the head… and that when it finally covers the head, it uncovers the feet. It is a dilemma that centre-right forces throughout Europe are facing, including in Spain: should they adopt the proposals of the extreme right and even form governments and alliances with ultra-right parties… or should they remain firm in their liberal convictions and set aside all populist-nationalist whims? How many voters are lost or gained one way and how many the other?

This debate has been going on for years in Franceprobably the first Western country where the extreme right presented itself as a clear alternative to power, with Jean-Marie Le Pen coming second in the first round of the 2002 presidential elections. At that time, there was something called “republican pact” between the two main parties – the Socialists and the Gaullists, under different names – which called for eliminating the extremes from the equation and uniting against the far right.

All that has changed since the two historically dominant parties in French politics lost control of their own electoral space. The fall of Les Républiques following the successive scandals of Nicolas Sarkozy and, above all, of François Fillon when he was leading the polls for the 2017 presidential elections, the first that Macron won, have made Gaullism fall into something very similar to the political irrelevanceAs for the French Socialist Party, suffice it to say that Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, won just over 2% of the vote in the last presidential election.

A union that would give victory

These changes unbalance the balance and the counterpowers. We see that the socialists have no problem in forming Popular Fronts with forces that they rejected as extremist not so long ago. For their part, in the Republicans there was a split before the declaration of candidacies that caused the president of the party himself, Eric Ciottiand several deputies in favour of Le Pen will run alongside him, while others will maintain the same banner to run separately.

Of course, there is a question of principle behind this. Those who wanted to distance themselves from the temptation of Marine Le Pen at her most seductive and powerful moment did so out of the same conviction that gave them 46 seats and almost two and a half million votes. It is not reasonable to claim that, if all the Gaullists had stood alongside the RN, their voters would have followed suit. Many would have gone over to Macron’s side, while others would have simply stayed at home or voted for other, less organised right-wing forces.

But it didn’t seem sensible to say that the NFP and Ensemble would succeed in mixing their electorates, and they have. This forces us to reconsider some hypotheses. What would have happened if all the Republicans had agreed to enter into a coalition with the far right? Well, in that case, and always following the logic of the dragged vote, The RN-LR would have obtained a minimum of 189 seatsseven more than the NFP.

That said, if we look more closely at each constituency, we find that, in addition, they could have won another seat together in the second round, no more and no less than the one obtained by the former president. François Hollande in the first constituency of La Correze. If we add to that the one they would have obtained by absolute majority in the first round in the fourth constituency of Pas-de-Calais, we would be talking about 191 seats, far from the 289 needed for an absolute majority, but sufficient to be the majority party in the Assembly.

Many right-wing parties, one country

This dilemma of the European right must necessarily influence its voters and their perspectives. Right now, in France, there is Gaullism, there are those who are about to Eric Zemmourthose of Eric Ciotti and those who support Le Pen. Sometimes they join forces and sometimes they separate, but the fact is that, with more votes than the left and the centre (although less than both together, of course), he has to settle for occupying third place in the distribution of seats.

They are therefore excluded from any option of forming part of the government and will not be able to aspire to occupy the Elysée Palace again until 2027. Since May 2014, when François Fillon left the presidency of the Council of Ministers, no right-wing politician has held a position of relevance in the French administration. Ten years that will probably be at least thirteen. Something unprecedented since Charles de Gaulle established the so-called Fifth Republic in 1958 and which requires deep reflection.