France wakes up this Monday immersed in uncertainty about what it could mean the rise to power of the extreme rightcondemned to ostracism for decades. The party National Group (RN), heir to the old far-right and led today by Marine Le Pen, this Sunday achieved its best result in history in the first round of legislative elections.
On a historic day, in which participation would have reached the highest figure since the 1980s with between 65.8% and 69%, Le Pen’s party has obtained 34.2% of the votes, according to the first surveys published by the IFOP institute after the closure of the schools. This is double what he achieved in the 2022 elections. It is a clear victory over the left coalition (created expressly to stop the extreme right or “fascism”, in their words) which, however, has managed to resist the attack from the other extreme.
With 29.1% of the ballots, the leftist alliance of New Popular Front (formed by environmentalists, communists and La Francia Insumisa) has established itself as second force. The centrist bloc, the alliance of supporters of current President Emmanuel Macron, has been the big loser, with between 20% and 22% of support. The first political force just two years ago, today Macronism holds third place.
Despite the fact that the polls support Le Pen’s extreme right, she has not managed to achieve the long-awaited absolute majority in the National Assembly. This leaves the future of the country in the hands of the second round, which will be held next Sunday, July 7. It will be then when it will be known if the far-right achieves the 289 seats needed to comfortably form a government.
At the moment, she does not have them, since according to the projections of the first round, RN would remain between 230 and 270. It is expected that Le Pen could rely on the conservative party of Los Republicanos, indicated as one of her main allies, although hardly has harvested the 10% of the votes and he has already announced that, contrary to tradition, he will not give instructions to his followers about who to support for the second round.
For the absolute majority
For the far-right party the goal now is to get absolute majority. This was clarified by Le Pen just a few minutes after the results were known in an appearance from Pas de Calais, in the north of the country, in which he declared that “the polls have practically erased the Macronist bloc.” During his speech, Le Pen claimed that “absolute majority” for a “decisive second round.” In his opinion, that is the only way that the French president will have no other choice but to name his new successor, the ultra-nationalist candidate Jordan BardellaPrime Minister.
The 27-year-old had already swept the European elections on 9 June. And it was his victory that prompted Macron – in an act that some now see as a reckless outburst – to dissolve the Assembly and announce early elections. On Sunday, after the first data were known, Bardella stood on a platform with the French flag (but without the European one) and He described it as “unappealable” his victory in the first round.
During his brief speech, in addition to calling for mobilization and mentioning in passing his anti-immigration proposal, he pointed out the left as the enemy to be beaten“The French will have to decide between an alliance of the worst, which will lead to ruin, or national unity which will restore security and defend jobs,” he proclaimed.
Initially, candidates who achieve 12.5% of voter support go on to the second round. This time, the extremely high turnout and a very dispersed vote have meant that three parties, instead of the usual two, have gone through. To facilitate the second round, the presidential coalition and and The left have asked the candidates who have ranked third in the different constituencies to ask for the vote against the extreme right.
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