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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrives in Brasilia on Monday. Among the issues to be discussed with the Moscow representative is the war in Ukraine. Analysts interviewed by RFI affirm that Brazil has the credentials to mediate in the conflict, but that the agreement clashes with the war industry, US interests and the lack of understanding about the occupied territories.
Raquel Miura, RFI correspondent in Brasilia
Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Brasilia has been the talk of the diplomatic corridors, especially since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva concluded his trip to the Middle East, where he criticized the United States and Europe by calling for joint efforts to end the war in Ukraine. .
In China, Lula defended the creation of a kind of G20 to negotiate the end of the conflict, which is why Lavrov’s visit to Brazil has also generated speculation about the discussion of negotiations for a possible agreement between the parties.
China has economic weight, but it does not have the diplomatic framework to negotiate a ceasefire, since it has supported the Russian side. The Chinese would then act behind the scenes. Brazil, for its part, although it does not have international weight to do so, had a more neutral position, condemning the invasion at the UN, but without full support for Ukraine.
“At the moment, Brazil is a much more appropriate candidate than China to mediate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because Brazil, since the beginning of the conflict, has tried not to align directly with either side, nor by supporting Russia’s actions in invading Ukrainian territory, but also not issuing much formal support for Ukraine, for the Ukrainian president. And Brazil has a history of mediation,” Giovana Branco, a Master’s in International Relations and a researcher at the Conflict Studies Group, told RFI Internationals of the PUC-SP.
Despite Brazil’s intentions, several factors intervene at the negotiating table, including knowledge of the areas occupied by the enemy. Analyst Laerte Apolinário, PhD in Political Science from USP and professor of International Relations at PUC/SP, affirms that this point is today one of the main obstacles to a peace agreement.
“Indeed, Russia has shown itself to be more open to peace talks. However, it does not seem to me that Putin is going to give up the conquered territories, especially the Crimea region. On the other hand, the Ukrainian government will not accept any negotiation that does not involve the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from pre-war Ukrainian territory.So while Brazil can act as a facilitator for peace talks, the country is unlikely to be able to broker any deal without the parties directly involved in the conflict reach a minimum consensus”, reflects the political scientist.
The war industry
The expert assures that political and economic interests, whether from the war industry or the United States Government, also reduce, in the short term, the chances of an armistice. “There are relevant interest groups in the West, such as sectors linked to the war and energy industries, who have no interest in ending the war immediately. In addition, the US administration has tried to use the conflict to weaken Russia and increase their internal popularity, which ends up driving away the chances of peace,” says Laerte Apolinário.
“As the Ukrainian resistance can only be sustained thanks to the support of the United States and other NATO countries, these countries end up becoming the decisive players in bringing the conflict to an end. After all, if Ukraine’s allies demand If the country accepts an agreement, even if it moves away from the positions defended by the Ukrainians, the Zelensky government will be able to do little to maintain its position,” adds the analyst.
diplomatic upset
Lavrov’s visit to Brazil takes place amid heavy clouds in the diplomacy of Brazil and the United States, which did not like Lula’s statements on Sunday in Abu Dhabi, when he said that various international actors have contributed to spreading the conflict.
“Peace is very difficult. The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, does not take the initiative for peace, Zelensky does not take the initiative for peace. Europe and the United States end up contributing to the continuation of this war,” Lula said during a press conference at the end of his trip to the United Arab Emirates.
Analysts interviewed by RFI said the China trip and the remarks caused some unease in Washington, but the country needed to be pragmatic.
“There was an expectation, with this change of power in Brazil and the election of Lula, of what would be the position of Brazil in this fight of giants, between the United States and China. And I think that the Biden administration hoped that Brazil would be a little more close to them. But I think that Lula does not necessarily close the door to the United States and only opens the door to China; he tries to mediate between these two great alliances. So it is natural that he also opens the range of possibilities, trying to find new allies, reinforce trade partners, so as not to depend diplomatically on either of the two parties”, analyzed Giovana Branco.
