Nazarbaev had chosen him for his loyalty demonstrated in the numerous positions he had been given in previous years. Instead, the surprises began with the June 9, 2019 elections, which sparked unprecedented protests. There has been no real change in the bureaucratic machinery and in the caste of oligarchs who own the country, while political repression against any hint of opposition continues.
Astana () – June 9 marked five years since the election of Kasym-Žomart Tokaev as president of Kazakhstan, having provisionally assumed office on March 20, 2019 following the resignation of his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbaev. He was subsequently re-elected in an early election call on November 20, 2022, in an attempt to pacify the country after a particularly turbulent year, which began with the bloody repressed uprisings of January 2022, which were followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
His presidency was thus greatly affected by the unforeseeable events that began with the Covid-19 pandemic, which prevented a peaceful succession between the “eternal president” and his dolphin, leading Kazakhstan to the need for profound reforms and the overcoming of the cult. to the personality of Nazarbayev, which had characterized the entire 30-year post-Soviet period. For this reason, observers of Kazakh politics, for the most part, define Tokaev’s five-year term as a “change to preserve”, without really believing in the will of the president and the ruling class to build a “new Kazakhstan.”
Nazarbaev had chosen him for the loyalty demonstrated in the numerous positions that had been entrusted to him in previous years, and for his great diplomatic career, which guaranteed a stable and predictable course, which would have allowed Elbasy, the “father of the country “, maintain complete control, even behind the scenes. Instead, the surprises began with the elections of June 9, 2019, which unleashed protests never seen in the recent history of Kazakhstan, with thousands of detainees in the capital, Astana, then called Nur-Sultan, and in the main city, Almaty.
Protests then spilled over into Kantar, the “bloody January” of 2022, in which 238 people died, and which risked subjecting the country to a Russian invasion, after the arrival of troops from Moscow under the alliance flag This, hurriedly returned by Tokaev. After his last re-election, the president promised that he would not run again at the end of his seven-year term, in 2029, and it remains to be seen to what extent he will be able to avoid new unrest in the second half of his term, since he will not They have resolved the numerous economic, social and political problems that caused the previous turmoil.
Initially, the motto of the “successional” presidency was the “Listening State”, overcoming the distance between the leaders and the people of the Nazarbayev period. Already in 2020, a law had been approved that apparently granted greater freedom of expression and aggregation, although in fact spontaneous demonstrations were not allowed. In fact, the Government continues to deny most of these “bottom-up” initiatives, granting only the possibility of meeting in a direct and controlled “top-down” manner, and Kazakhstan fails to overcome the image of an authoritarian State, beyond the you proclaim.
As independent political scientist Dosym Satpaev observes, “it was naive to think in 2019 that a system of which Tokaev was and is the most typical product would change,” and in the current turbulent geopolitical phase one can think of everything except real and deep reforms. There has been no real change in the bureaucratic machinery and caste of the country’s oligarch masters, while political repression against any hint of opposition continues. The most serious problem, according to Satpaev, is the lack of truly strong institutions in the country, capable of facing the great challenges that await Kazakhstan and the entire Central Asian region.
The political scientist points out that Tokaev is also accustomed to the “manual conduct” of power, which is based on “four pillars: the ruling family, the organs of power, an ineffective bureaucracy and the oligarchic caste.” Compared to Nazarbaev, the “family” has disappeared, but otherwise nothing has changed; Tokaev wrote in recent days in Euronews that Kazakhstan is “a medium power” with an important role on the international scene, but evidently has not yet found its true identity.
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