The trip is a testament to the growing interest of Germans and the EU as a whole in the region, particularly in the area of an alternative trade corridor to Moscow. But many companies are extremely cautious about investing, frightened by the economic damage caused by the war in Ukraine and by a local environment rife with corruption.
Astana () – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made his first official visit to Tashkent and Astana, where he met with the leaders of all Central Asian countries in the “5+1” format, the second of its kind after receiving the five presidents in Germany last year. Against the backdrop of Russia’s local and global war, the interest of Germans and the entire European Union in this crucial region has clearly increased.
As Stefan Meister, an expert at the German Foreign Policy Association, confirmed to Azattyk, “the main focus is on finding new partners for natural resources, oil, gas and rare materials.” Germany is prepared to invest considerable resources in this direction, but after the Berlin summit in 2023 the Central Asians were rather disappointed, as they are still waiting for the implementation of the projects that were put on the table at the first meeting.
However, Scholz’s trip shows the willingness of European leaders to continue dialogue and cooperation with these countries, especially in economic and immigration matters. The German Chancellor was accompanied by a large delegation of businessmen, which made the summit all the more promising for the real development of business and prospects for Central Asians, considering that until two years ago the German economy was largely dependent on Russian gas and other raw materials that can be found in this area.
The most important long-term investments will undoubtedly be in the alternative trade corridor to Asia and China, via Central Asia, the South Caucasus and the Black Sea. All European countries, international banks and players in the technology and infrastructure market are interested in this. It will take a long time,” says Meister, because “investment conditions in Central Asia have not improved, and there is a lack of legal security and authoritarian arbitrariness.” Many companies are extremely cautious, given the trauma of the huge losses caused by the closure of the Russian market and the persistence of widespread corruption in these countries.
According to the political scientist, it should be noted that “Scholz is not a very influential leader in Europe, especially in the context of this war,” and he does not have the ability to interact effectively and continuously with the heads of state and government in Central Asia, which would be indispensable given that these countries are governed “from the top down.” Moreover, even compared to his predecessor Angela Merkel, Scholz “is not very attentive to the issue of human rights.” Nevertheless, the issue of migrants and their rights was addressed at the summit, although it remains “a secondary issue,” according to Meister.
However, the shadow of the Russian threat still looms large, as Kazakh President Kasym-Zomart Tokaev said during the Astana meeting, saying that “a new escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war could have irreparable consequences.” Asked by Scholz himself about this, Tokaev replied that “it is a fact that Russia is invincible in the military field,” and that this “poses a threat to all of humanity, and especially to the countries most involved in the conflict between Moscow and kyiv.” The Kazakh leader still sees peace talks as possible, although “many opportunities have been missed,” starting with the possible Istanbul agreement.
Tokaev also noted that “heads of state come and go, so neighbouring peoples should live in peace and mutual understanding,” recalling that the longest land border in the world runs between Russia and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has always maintained “very friendly relations, including with Ukraine and its unique culture,” but it seems that “Putin has no intention of stopping.”
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