Parties that could create problems for the president and the caste in power were excluded from the elections. That way, Tokaev won’t be able to shake off the old guard linked to his predecessor Nazarbayev. If there are no real reforms, revolts similar to those of January 2022 could be repeated.
Moscow () – The parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan, to be held on March 19, appear to be largely an attempt to strengthen the personal power of President Kasym-Žomart Tokaev, as most observers from various countries affirm. After his hasty re-election as president, at the end of a year of tensions and dramatic internal and external events, Tokaev must now consolidate his role as a “democratic reformer”, but risks creating more disappointment and disorder in the country. .
As Almaz Kuzmenov points out in Eurasianet, the formal simplification of political party registration procedures is not eliminating the practice of allowing only the groups most loyal to the regime to participate in the competition. A certain participatory fervor sparked the presidential decision to reduce the minimum number of affiliates to register a party from 20 to 5,000. But hopes were dashed considerably when the Ministry of Justice refused to admit opposition parties Alga, Kazakhstan!, Namys and other groups.
Namys leader Sanzhar Bomayev is now an established businessman after having been a ruling party official for years. He denounces that the government continues to invent obstacles of all kinds to prevent the participation of independent formations in the political struggle. His views are shared by the activist and journalist Sergej Duvanov, for whom “there is no doubt that Akorda [el palacio presidencial] he is building a Parliament to suit him, having the electorate elect only those he knows he can control”.
To tell the truth, two new parties have been registered: one is Baytak, which expresses environmental positions, although it has not been involved in any major initiatives in this field so far. In any case, his main referent, Azamatkhan Amirtaj, is a supporter of Tokaev. The other party, Respublica, also declares itself in favor of Akorda’s line. However, in Kuzmanov’s opinion the majority party in the last elections, Amanat, is not sure whether to confirm his leadership.
The political scientist Tolganaj Umbetalieva, director of the Central Asian Foundation for the Development of Democracy, affirms in turn that the other two parties currently represented in the Mažilis (Ak Žol” and the People’s Party) cannot be sure of obtaining any seats either, because Akorda does not trust them very much “The old parties support Tokaev’s policies just to survive in Parliament, but they are too subject to the manipulations of ex-president Nazarbaev’s men, whom the current president must get rid of for good” , writes Umbetalieva.
Some moves by Nazarbaev’s relatives and associates in the financial markets reveal that the old caste of “eternal power” is far from willing to step aside.
Auyl and the National Social Democratic Party will also contest the elections. The latter has so far been presented as opposition, but it seems a formation with exhausted potential. The electoral law establishes that of the 98 disputed seats, 69 are assigned proportionally, while the remaining 29 will be disputed in single-member constituencies. In the various hypotheses about the results, many expect a Parliament “new in formation, but old in content.”
Umbetalieva considers that “for Tokaev it is important that new men arrive at the Mazhilis to support the project of a new Kazakhstan, faithfully following the indications of the system in power”, but there is a risk that “the president is playing with fire, in his own home and with Russia”. If the course of the reforms does not prove credible enough, revolts similar to those of January 2022 could be repeated, risking Kazakhstan being invaded by troops from Moscow, troops who later went to Ukraine.
