ISRAEL The maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon was suspended, they fear a military escalation

At stake is the exploitation of important gas deposits in the disputed territories between the two countries. Prime Minister Mikati had spoken of “diplomatic success” avoiding a new conflict. Some controversial details, among them the “line of buoys”, froze the negotiations. The interests of Hezbollah and the shadow of the Israeli elections, with the possible return of Netanyahu.

Beirut () – Some last minute details slowed down the agreement on the delimitation of the maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon and the exploitation of offshore gas fields on the border between the two countries. After long negotiations, the signing seemed to be a fact to the satisfaction of both parties, but on the contrary it has been frozen. The interim Prime Minister, Nagib Mikati, had even expressed his satisfaction, during a visit to the Maronite Patriarchate on October 5, for this “diplomatic success” that would have made it possible to “avoid a new war in the region”. But that same night the risk once again took on dramatic relevance when Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz spoke to the army to warn them of the danger of a possible escalation in the North, for which it was necessary to be prepared.

The central problem of this abrupt interruption of the talks are some amendments that Lebanon introduced during the meeting to finalize the agreement that took place on October 4 at the palace of the head of state in Baabda. These amendments were also presented as “details” and “clarifications” by the Vice President of Parliament, Élias Bou Saab, appointed by the President of the Republic Michel Aoun to follow the negotiations.

What seems to have compromised the signing of the agreement, according to the Lebanese press, revolves around the so-called “line of buoys”. What is it about? The “line of buoys” was placed when Israel withdrew from the border strip it had occupied at the time (May 2000), and it extends for about 6 km, starting from Ras Naqoura, on the Israeli side. In the US mediator’s proposal, the border that delimits the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the two countries follows the line of the buoys for these 6 kilometers, before reaching line 23 adopted as the southern maritime border.

However, at the insistence of Hezbollah, Lebanon refuses to recognize this line of buoys and demands that it be mentioned in the text as imposed “de facto”. According to the Israeli media, Amos Hochstein’s text described this delimitation as part of the “status quo”. This simple “detail” seems to have been perceived by the Israeli side as a decision to question the existence of such a line in the more or less remote future. “Hezbollah doesn’t even want to hear about it,” says a source involved in the negotiations. And Israel doesn’t seem willing to make any concessions on the issue either.

On the other hand, according to the Ici-Beyrouth website, Israel also rejected Beirut’s request that the French company Total, in charge of exploiting the Cana deposit, have complete freedom of movement in this sector without a prior agreement with the Israeli government. . Meanwhile, the freezing of the talks has raised a wave of pessimism in the region, although the main negotiator, Amos Hochstein, said that none of the difficulties that have been raised are insurmountable.

The lack of an agreement could mean, as a negative consequence in the immediate future, the freezing of the negotiations at least until the elections in Israel, scheduled for November 1, although the hope is to close the game before the electoral deadline. This would mean that, in the event of a victory for Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections, the entire proposal could be questioned and with it the risk of escalation or even the real danger of an open war.

Indeed, for the Israelis, the priority remains being able to start gas extraction in the Karish field without the risk of escalation. Indeed, Hezbollah has repeatedly threatened to carry out a military operation if extraction operations begin before Lebanon can do the same in its exclusive economic zone. Hochstein’s proposal grants Lebanon an area delimited by line 23 – his official claim – but which also includes the Cana field, part of which extends to the south. Netanyahu, who wants to regain control of the Israeli government, accused Lapid of “ceding” a “sovereign territory of Israel” and even of having “capitulated” in the face of Hassan Nasrallah’s threats.