ISRAEL The crisis of Justice revives the leadership of Gantz. And sink Netanyahu

The protests in the streets undermine the consensus of public opinion towards the government. Two polls show a loss of votes (and seats) in the ruling party, which would only manage to obtain 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Among the leaders, General Gantz achieves a 37% approval rating against 30% for the acting prime minister. The other opposition leader, Lapid, is also losing support. Again, Biden closes the doors of the White House to Bibi, who responds irritated.

Jerusalem () – Public opinion support doubles for opposition leader Benny Gantz. On the other hand, it indicates that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose his majority in Parliament and will not be able to form a government. In the Knesset, the ruling coalition would not reach the threshold of 60 seats plus one (out of a total of 120) in order to govern.

The political earthquake occurred after the controversial justice reform promoted by the current executive and now “frozen” until after Passover. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis came out to demonstrate against her, to which is added a resounding rejection of the judiciary, the army and the reservists. The reform also affects -although perhaps momentarily- the consensus around the current leadership and has created a rift on the other side of the Atlantic: the President of the United States, Joe Biden, has confirmed that it is not foreseen “at least in the short term ” an invitation from the Israeli Prime Minister to the White House. Observers who closely follow Israeli affairs now focus on Benny Gantz, the former army chief of staff, leader of the (centrist) White Blue party and former president of the Knesset, Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister to Yair Lapid. Faced with a defenseless opposition leader, the general benefits from the crisis unleashed by the reform, strongly desired by the religious extreme right and against which the majority of the population has aligned itself.

Two different surveys (Channel 12 – Kan News) released in recent days show that Gantz and his party have nearly “doubled” their approval ratings among voters. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud would collapse: of the current 32 seats it would win 25, and the governing coalition as a whole would be well below 60, between 53 and 54. Support for Lapid would also drop, from 24 to 22 seats. The winner for the moment is Gantz and the National Unity party, which would obtain 23 seats (according to Channel 12) or at least 21 (Kan News) compared to the 12 it occupies today.

The former head of the Army seems to be a clear winner in the fight with other leaders. To the question (from Kan News) about who should lead the country today, if the choice is between Netanyahu and Lapid, the premier has 31% approval and the second with 32%. The difference is much greater in the challenge between Netanyahu and Gantz, since the former has 30% of support, while the centrist leader climbs to 37%.

63% of those surveyed – including 60% of Likud voters – approve the decision to “freeze” the reform and proceed to new negotiations between the parties, as requested by the President of the Republic, Isaac Herzog. Only 24% of those surveyed oppose the pause and consider that the reform should be approved immediately and with the current structure. Faced with the same question, the figures for Kan respondents are 62% versus 22%. Finally, 68% of voters reject the management of the current prime minister. Only 25% save Netanyahu, who was also criticized (63%, with 58% among Likud voters) for his decision to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for opposing the reform.

The pause generates discontent in the hard wing of the Government, led by the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, and the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, who are pressing for the reform to be approved as soon as possible. To avoid a government crisis, Netanyahu himself has announced the creation of a “national guard” that would report to the leader of Jewish Power. The risk is that the force could end up becoming a “private militia”, as former police chief Moshe Karadi called it, criticizing the decision. In the background, other voices opposed to the reform are the reservists, the army and the magistrates, which shows that the crisis could become more acute and put Israel’s security at risk.

The confrontation around the reform of justice also has repercussions at the international level: once again, the US president closed the doors of the White House to Netanyahu. Bibi’s death embrace with the religious right could lose her the support of the American Jewish community – with its weight, influence and economic power. For more than four months, the premier Israel expects an invitation from Washington, something quite unprecedented. And Joe Biden’s words do not show an opening. The media quoted the US president as saying: “Like many strong supporters of Israel, I am very concerned. Let’s hope the prime minister will act to reach a real deal, but that remains to be seen.” At the same time, ruled out a “short-term” visit. Netanyahu’s reply was immediate: “we do not accept pressure, not even from our friends,” he said. For his part, Ben Gvir reiterated that Israel “is not a star” of the flag US.