With the support of President Biden, the US ceasefire project between Israel and Hezbollah awaits the green light from Netanyahu’s executive. The agreement will see the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s Al-Radwan force north of the Litani River and the complete departure of Israel from Lebanese territory. This should be followed by the return of displaced populations and a quintet to monitor compliance with the agreement.
Beirut () – “Nothing is final until everything is final.” This is how the US State Department and the White House described yesterday the situation of the talks for a ceasefire in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Jewish State. A truce – preceded by a deluge of iron and fire in recent days – that is ready to come into effect at any moment and that has the strong support of the president of the United States, Joe Biden. The objective is to put an end to more than two months of aerial bombardments, exchanges of missiles and ground combat that have left more than 1,770 dead and nearly 11,000 injured in the Country of the Cedars, as well as incalculable damage to homes and infrastructure, including hospitals.
Added to this is the dramatic displacement of more than a million Lebanese from their homes. The agreement will involve the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s Al-Radwan force north of the Litani and the complete withdrawal of Israel from Lebanese territory, as well as the return of displaced populations on both sides of the border. Meanwhile, Israel yesterday continued to issue bombing warnings to residents of the capital’s southern suburbs.
The project is expected to be reviewed and possibly approved today by the Israeli war cabinet. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet convinced his Defense Minister, Israel Katz, of the validity of the agreement. To help him, Washington sent Daniel Shapiro, deputy secretary of defense and former ambassador to Israel. The prime minister must also convince Itamar Ben Gvir, his Minister of National Security. The latter considers that the ceasefire is “a big mistake” that would make Israel lose “a unique opportunity” to close the game with Hezbollah. However, Ben Gvir has not threatened to resign if the ceasefire decision is adopted, which is a good sign for Netanyahu and especially for peace.
In Beirut, indirect signs suggest that the pro-Iran Shiite movement “has unreservedly accepted all the provisions of UN Resolution 1701” that ended the 2006 conflict. But, as they say, “the devil hides in the details”. Congressman Elias Bou Saab, close to the negotiations led by President Biden’s US envoy, Amos Hochstein, specifically assures that “there is no clause in 1701 that gives Israel the right to interfere militarily or otherwise in Lebanon, if the resolution is not respected”.
This is the point at which the ceasefire proposal could stumble, according to all interested sources. Israel would like resolution 1701 to include its right to intervene militarily in the event of violations of the resolution’s provisions. This is evidently an invasion of Lebanese sovereignty that all citizens of the Land of the Cedars reject. In this sense, the possibility of agreeing on a “secret” clause between the United States and Israel, outside the ceasefire agreement, has been raised to require Washington’s discretion in the face of a possible military initiative by the Jewish State. In any case, in the case of a bilateral agreement between the two allies, this “right” would not have the force of international law.
The ceasefire and the implementation of Resolution 1701 provide for: the complete withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters and their arsenal north of the Litani River line; the dismantling of its fortifications and weapons depots; the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops; the return of populations that have been forced to flee on the condition that they are not armed; the deployment of the Lebanese army, with several thousand new elements, and UNIFIL, in the evacuated regions. These agreements would be extended for a 60-day trial period, at the end of which, technically, the cessation of hostilities would be known as a ceasefire. The truce would be supervised by a five-member commission: Lebanon-Israel-UNIFIL-France and the United States. The commission would be chaired by an American officer from Centcom (United States Central Command, a unit whose main objective is the deterrence of Iran). Even in this case, however, the consensus could be broken.
Therefore, a positive outcome of the talks and the agreement of a long-awaited ceasefire depends on the good faith of the protagonists of the conflict. In exchange for the withdrawal north of the Litani River, Hezbollah – and Lebanon – specifically demand that the Star of David fighters stop violating the Cedar Country’s airspace. According to the Lebanese military, UNIFIL has recorded 36,000 violations since 2006. In Beirut political circles there is agreement that Resolution 1701 “has been very poorly applied” by everyone, including the international force, and it is expected that from now on be implemented more seriously. As long as the long-awaited truce is reached!
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