Just a few days ago, former President Rouhani once again harshly criticized the exclusion of reformists from the elections, questioning the “representativeness” of the institutions of the Islamic Republic. Only 8% of Tehran voters voted in the second round of the elections for new deputies. Now, after the death of Raisi in a plane crash, the issue will be raised again with the election of the new president which, according to the Constitution, must be called within a period of 50 days.
Tehran (/Agencies) – The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in the accident of his helicopter, yesterday afternoon, is destined to reopen the political conflict in the Islamic Republic. Only a few months ago the last vote had been held, in which the Tehran electorate expressed its discontent with the line adopted by the conservatives using the only tool at their disposal: abstention.
Just a few days ago, in a rare open letter, former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (2013-21) openly criticized the conservative-dominated Guardian Council as incapable of defending his seat in the Assembly of Experts elections. which were held last March 1. Elected for an eight-year term, the 88-member Council will likely have to name the successor to the 85-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the authority to which all institutions of the Islamic Republic must submit. Furthermore, defending the results of his administration, the moderate Rouhani had indirectly attacked Raisi himself for having wrecked the negotiations for the renewal of the 2015 nuclear agreement and – consequently – the elimination of Western sanctions.
Also making an implicit reference to former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, his ally, who in 2021 was prevented from challenging Raisi in the presidential race, Rouhani says in his letter that the exclusion of “personalities who won the popular vote in previous elections ” would raise “doubts about the true republican nature” of the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, in the elections that brought Raisi to the presidency three years ago, participation was only 48%, by far the lowest ever recorded in presidential elections. Last May 10, in the second round for the allocation of the last seats in Parliament, which was renewed with practically only candidates from the conservative front, 8% of eligible citizens went to vote in Tehran.
These theses of Rouhani – reproduced in recent days by some reformist newspapers – have been harshly stigmatized by those closest to the Pasdaran, who now accuse the former president of being “a member of the Iranian opposition” (the cartel of groups that criticize from exile to the regime of the ayatollahs).
Raisi’s departure from the scene, then, reopens the game of power balances in Tehran and the race for Khamenei’s succession. Beyond the interval entrusted to First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, the Iranian Constitution establishes that presidential elections be called within 50 days. Therefore, in the coming weeks the question of vetoing candidatures will be raised again. On the reformist front, along with Larijani, the probably most popular candidate would be former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who had ultimately given up running in 2021. On the conservative front, however, along with Mokhber, the most accredited at this time are those of the outgoing speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (who ran for president in the past, but was defeated by both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 and Rouhani in 2013). – and the current mayor of Tehran, Alireza Zakani.
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