Iran, suspended between an ‘existential crisis’ and the ‘look to the East’

The RUSI expert talks about the situation in the Islamic Republic, between the street protests (which are fading) and the embrace of China and Russia. She highlighted the importance of the resumption of relations with Riyadh and the “tangible” results in Yemen, although it is still too early to talk about peace. The role of women is the “most important” factor in the anti-veil demonstrations, but the rules have been tightened. International support for the uprising is complicated.

Milan () – In foreign policy, the gaze is directed “more and more to the East” and ties with China and Russia are tightening. The resumption of relations with Riyadh is a “major event” that seems to be bringing “tangible results” in Yemen, although it is too early to assume a lasting peace because “other parties” are involved. On the domestic front, it is clear that the protests have subsided, but the reasons for the uprising have not been addressed or resolved.

These are the comments that emerged during an interview with Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an expert on Iranian affairs and Middle East geopolitics. She is a Senior Research Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), an advisor to international think tanks, and a contributor to the world’s most influential media outlets. In recent years she has delved into the issues of radicalization and the proliferation of drones. “The Islamic Republic may not be facing an existential threat, but it is certainly going through a deep existential crisis,” she says, “which […] It will lead to more mobilizations in the future.”

Below is the full interview with the RUSI expert:

Does the resumption of relations between Riyadh and Tehran really represent a turning point?

It is an important advance [resultado de] the negotiations that began with the previous Iraqi government, that of the prime minister [Mustafá] al-Kadhimi, but it took a long time to get to where we are now and Yemen was crucial in putting both sides on an equal footing. In addition to the bilateral negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, there are also direct negotiations between Riyadh and the Houthis, which appear to be yielding tangible results, as we have seen and will see in the coming weeks. Both parties want to reach a détente, which does not mean normalization but does mean the recognition that these relations [de enfrentamiento] since 2016, but especially since 2017 -with the Trump administration- they have not benefited anyone.

What are the consequences at the regional level?

Although it is too early to tell, Yemen is certainly the starting point. It is a crucial factor for Saudi Arabia, but it is also the one on which Iran appears to have the best chance of reaching an agreement. The other potential arenas are Syria and Lebanon, and indirectly also Iraq, which has been crucial in putting Tehran in a bad light in the eyes of the Saudis. In the meantime, we have to see if this [acuerdo] in Yemen it works and what it leads to, because it deals with limited areas. Even if there is an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, even if it brings détente between the parties, this does not necessarily mean the end of the conflict. And this is because there are other parts [implicadas] They feel completely left out. This is not a comprehensive resolution of the conflict in Yemen. It is about translating the successes into a broader agreement that is recognized by the other parties, and this is not the case, at least for the moment.

Expanding the field, are we moving more and more in the direction of a confrontation between blocks: on the one hand, the West; on the other Iran, China and Russia?

For now, this seems to be the most probable trend, which also reinforces the president’s initial position [Ebrahim] Raisi of wanting to follow the policy of “looking to the East”. Tehran has set out to improve relations with its neighbors and, in its view, this policy [de vuelco hacia Moscú y Beijing] it’s working, so it will continue in this direction.

Thousands of cases of poisoning of female students have emerged recently in Iran. Do you think they are related to the Mahsa Amini protests?

It is difficult to understand what is happening because the information is limited. There have been numerous arrests of suspected perpetrators, but it is not really clear who they are, whether they are people affiliated with the government or others who want to fuel a new popular mobilization against the leaders. It is still difficult to understand the impact and the connection with the protest movement, although there is certainly discontent among the population with respect to the regime, especially because of the way in which the repressions and executions have been managed.

Returning to the demonstrations, today the momentum seems to have waned after an initial phase in which Tehran seemed to falter. What is the situation?

The protests have subsided not because there is no longer discontent or anger towards the regime, but because the reasons have not been addressed or resolved. And this is so for a number of factors. there is no acceptance [de los dirigentes de la República Islámica] to change, to reform, to make room for the issue of the veil, for the morality police. If someone expected a softening, in reality the opposite has happened and there has been a further tightening and even stricter application of the rules [que han sofocado el levantamiento]. Women are watched on the street, located and arrested if they do not wear the hijab correctly. The regime has not responded to the demand of the population for more freedom and rights; however, without this change, sooner or later, the protests will return

Something that has attracted attention in the protests is the presence, courage and role of women. What does it represent today for current Iranian society?

This has been the most important factor of all the demonstrations and will potentially have the most lasting impact compared to the popular mobilization of Iranians. This is also part of the fact that there is a gradually increasing erosion between state and society, a process that has been going on for years and intensifies after each demonstration. The Islamic Republic may not be facing an existential threat, but it is certainly facing a deep existential crisis that, in the long run, could be dangerous to its very survival and will lead to more mobilizations in the future.

The repression of the ayatollahs has also hit minorities hard, starting with the Kurds…

The greatest impact of these demonstrations has been on minorities, and abroad. While, on the one hand, the regime did not give the feeling of being threatened by what was happening inside Iran, on the other it tried to take advantage of what was happening to resolve the issue of minorities, starting with the Kurds, especially the groups dissidents based in Iraqi Kurdistan. We have clearly seen how there has been an attempt by Iran to link internal and international events to its own advantage and to mitigate a threat to its security that would otherwise have been more difficult to deal with.

In your opinion, has there been a kind of international “abandonment” of the Iranian protest movement?

It is difficult to say, because international support is important, but it is also a delicate aspect. On the domestic front, the regime already tends to accuse protesters of being spies, supported by the West, by international forces, and therefore it is riskier to support them from abroad. At the international level, the points of influence are very limited: there was an attempt to support it, but in a clumsy way, through sanctions and a series of statements that had no impact on Tehran’s behavior. A delicate balance is also at stake, which must take into account support for the population without interfering too much so that it is not counterproductive, because it could intensify the repression. And international movements or opposition groups abroad do not always represent the vision of those who demonstrate.

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