In foreign and regional policy, the Supreme Leader and the Pasdaran are the ones who define the guidelines. And the main source of resistance, Hezbollah, is linked to the Revolutionary Guards. However, according to analyst Haddad, “Hamas accepted the ceasefire proposal with the approval of the Iranians.” And the election of a reformist is part of an indication of openness to dialogue in a “different climate.”
Beirut () – The first reformist to become president of Iran since 2005, Masoud Pezeshkian, has promised to extend “the hand of friendship to all.” Could this change at the top of the Islamic Republic also have consequences for Lebanon, even if the final decisions remain the prerogative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the country’s true strongman? A consideration that is not at all obvious, knowing full well that in politics there are no gifts or concessions, only convergence of interests.
Pezeshkian’s election is, fundamentally, “a message to the West that Tehran is not seeking war and wants to resume nuclear negotiations,” he told Rossella Haddad, an expert close to the circles involved, added: “At the same time, the regime is absorbing part of the popular discontent within Iran.” The journalist is convinced that this measure “is desired” and the result of a “deliberate” decision. After all, the Council of Elders, which examined the presidential candidates, chose his candidacy over that of seven conservatives.” Without saying so explicitly, the scholar believes that this was a way of giving the reformist candidate an advantage, dispersing the votes of his rivals among the ranks of the figures most closely linked to the establishment and the supreme leader.
During the election campaign, Massoud Pezeshkian promised to negotiate directly with Washington to revive talks on Iran’s nuclear programme; a key negotiation but one that has entered a stalemate since the United States in 2018, under President Donald Trump, withdrew from the international agreement (JCPOA) signed in 2015. However, the opportunities for the new leader will largely depend on the outcome of the US presidential election in November. “If Donald Trump returns to power in the United States, his advisers have already indicated that they will again impose a policy of ‘maximum pressure’ [con las sanciones económicas más duras de la historia, como las había definido Tycoon] against Iran,” says Thierry Coville, an Iran researcher at Iris, a geopolitical think tank.
Tehran and the Lebanese presidency
Asked whether Pezeshkian’s election will have an impact on the Lebanese presidential election, Rossella Haddad is sceptical. “I don’t think so,” she says, convinced, explaining that when it comes to military, foreign or regional policy issues, it is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) who set the tone. We know that Hezbollah, which has just received a message of support from the new Iranian president, is directly linked to the ideological-religious army of the Islamic Republic. “Support for the resistance is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” warns the expert.
However, there is a widespread opinion in Beirut that if Iran is trying to clean up its international image, it cannot be ruled out that the desire for openness will extend to the Lebanese question by improving its relations with Saudi Arabia and the Arab League. On the Arab side, both Riyadh and Egypt, as well as the United States, France and the Vatican, have been trying for months, through a joint commission (the “Quintet”), to make progress on this issue, which has been blocked since October 2022 with the vacancy of the presidential chair.
Regarding the ongoing confrontation with the Shiite community over the presidential elections, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who has just returned from a trip to Lebanon, made it clear that “there is no lack of dialogue,” but “the problem is above all with Hezbollah.” The Party of God linked to Iran, continued the Vatican Secretary of State, “is in the game and has its own candidate,” so the fundamental problem is to find a name “that is accepted by all the parties” involved.
Still in relation to the presidency, Rossella Haddad believes that the ball is still in the Christian court. Citing some sources close to the president of the Lebanese Chamber, at the end of his meeting with the cardinal, Nabih Berry was “very satisfied” with the visit. The source added that “if the truce in Gaza is concrete and works, the issue of the appointment of the Head of State, which has been vacant for almost two years, will also be quickly resolved.” And on this issue the analyst concludes with a reflection: “Hamas has opened a ceasefire in Gaza with the support of the Iranians. The election of Pezeshkian is part of this game. Now there is the possibility of a completely different climate. The issues – she says – could change soon, if the truce effectively reaches Palestine and if the Christians in Lebanon are able to grasp this signal.”
Add Comment