‘Invasion’ of satellites: Elon Musk will have 30,000 of them in orbit

To the massive constellation of satellites operated by SpaceX, As it continues to grow, it will be joined by more competitors to provide broadband from space for commercial purposes, and to serve the strategic interests of states.

When eight years ago access to high speed internet via satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), analysts expected only two or three companies to succeed.

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“But the number keeps growingsaid Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Analytics, during the Satellite 2023 conference. At least eight companies are currently competing to launch or complete their LEO constellations, including early entrants SpaceX and OneWeb.

Amazon plans to launch more than 3,200 satellites with its Kuiper project.

China plans to launch 13,000 satellites as part of its GuoWang constellationwhile Canada’s Telesat will add 300 and German start-up Rivada about 600. That will be on top of the European Union’s Iris project (170 satellites) and the 300 to 500 satellites the US military’s Space Development Agency plans to launch.

“The involvement of sovereign interests was underestimated” on this issue, said Henry. While 120 satellites were launched in the whole of 2012, almost 380 were put into orbit in the first two months of this year alone. The number of LEO satellites should increase to 24,500 over the next decade, according to Euroconsult forecasts.

No one yet knows how the market will assimilate this influx, according to Henry.

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Mark Dankberg, president of Viasat, which operates in the much higher geostationary orbit, said he would be interested in entering the LEO satellite market. “We are interested in LEOs, what worries us is that there is enough competition in the marketDankberg said.

He also warned about “the question of sustainability”: with so many objects in orbit, increases the risk of collisions, scattered debris and overloaded frequencies. By far the main operator of LEOs is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which has already launched nearly 3,600 satellites and was cleared in December to deploy 7,500 of its planned second-generation constellation of 30,000 satellites.

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Starlink’s Million Customers it is still in second place to Hughes, an operator based in the United States, but whose satellites, like Viasat’s, are much larger and fly in geostationary orbit.

OneWeb, the British operator that is in the process of being acquired by Eutelsat, it completed its penultimate launch in early March and is expected to complete its constellation of 650 satellites by the end of the month.

Amazon’s Kuiper project head Dave Limp said they will launch their first two prototypes in May and are “on time to have more than half” of their constellation “ready by mid-2026.” a requirement to maintain your rights on certain frequencies. But when it comes to government-sponsored projects, like the EU’s Iris, “commercial utility comes second.” “The idea is to work together on defense,” Henry said of Iris.

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The expert attributed the new impetus behind the project to the war in Ukraine, where kyiv’s forces and civilians have used Starlink to stay connected. despite attacks on the country’s telecommunications infrastructure.

AFP