The two front-runners in the polls have opposing positions on neighbouring India, which is sometimes seen as an uncomfortable presence in domestic political affairs. And Delhi is concerned about growing Chinese influence. However, given the context that has been created in South Asia, it will probably be willing to work with whoever comes to power.
Colombo () – The elections to be held on 21 September in Sri Lanka will be closely watched by neighbouring India. The two countries are linked not only by geographical proximity and cultural ties (between Tamils living in the northern areas of the island and those residing in southern India, in Tamil Nadu), but also by political and strategic issues. China has in fact sought to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean, in the past supporting candidates from the Rajapaksa family and financing infrastructure projects such as the port of the capital, Colombo, which has often clashed with the purchase and financing proposals of the Adani group, linked to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and therefore representative of Delhi. As a result, China has always preferred candidates hostile to Beijing.
There are four (out of 38) main candidates vying for the post of president: outgoing Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who managed the economic crisis following popular protests that ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa; Namal Rajapaksa, the young face of the family, running for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP); Anura Kumara Dissanayakefrom the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition; and Sajith Premadasa, from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).
According to the commentators, The front-runners will be Dissanayake and Premadasa, while Wickremesinghe is in third place in the polls. The former, leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a pro-Chinese Marxist-inspired party that has only three seats in Parliament, has threatened to scrap the renewable energy deals that were signed with Adani (for the construction of two wind farms with an investment of 442 million dollars, with the energy produced paid at 8.26 cents per kilowatt hour) and keeping Indian fishermen away from the coasts of Sri Lanka. The second, on the other hand, leads a right-wing party that since its origins – when it was called the United National Party in the 1950s – has opposed the Chinese presence in the region, defending Indian positions in local conflicts.
SJB members often cite the risks of debt traps, and Premadasa is also the only candidate who has promoted the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which provides for the decentralization of administrative power to provincial councils. on the basis of an agreement stipulated between India and Sri Lanka in 1987but which never fully materialised due to tensions between the Tamil and Sinhalese ethnic groups. The agreement allowed Indian peacekeepers to land in Sri Lanka, but the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna still opposes it to this day, accusing Delhi of interfering in the country’s political affairs. Premadasa, unlike President Wickremesinghe, appears intent on maintaining a more balanced approach towards the various foreign powers that have interests in Sri Lanka, including China and the United States.
Sri Lanka is in a geopolitical context that is not particularly favourable to India at the moment, following the change of government in Bangladesh (former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was overthrown by youth protests and, not coincidentally, has taken refuge in India) and the growing anti-Indian sentiments on other strategic islands in the Indian Ocean, such as the Maldives, where a pro-Chinese government recently took power and expelled Indian soldiers stationed on the archipelago. India seems to be aware of the international scenario and, according to experts, will be willing to willing to work with whoever wins the electionIn February, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval hosted NPP leaders in India for bilateral talks.
However, the issue that Sri Lankans are most concerned about remains the economy, and more and more candidates are looking favourably on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout arrangements. Dhananath Fernando, an economist at the Advocata Institute think tank in Colombo, said ethnic rivalries would most likely be put aside. The winning candidate will have to ensure that Sri Lanka puts its finances in order, starts paying off foreign creditors, attracts investment and completes the four-year IMF programme. “The main criticism of the government is that it has not shown sufficient sensitivity or empathy towards the urgent problem of debt restructuring and has not ensured that the burden of such adjustment does not fall on the people least able to bear it,” said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttuan analyst at the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a Colombo think tank.
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