Just a month ago it seemed that Putin was getting the war for free. The Russian leader then implied that Western sanctions were not affecting his country’s economy. In the end, his energy exports still far outstripped defense spending. But now, on the 129th day of the invasion, things have changed: Russia has entered defaultwith no signs of improvement.
It is the first time since 1918, when the civil war broke out, that Moscow has been unable to pay its foreign debt. This is mainly because Europe and the United States they have blocked the means of payment to creditorspreventing him from disbursing the interest of 100 million dollars of two debt issues.
However, despite the fact that it is in suspension of payments, Russia is not lacking in liquidity. As Europe imposed sanctions and searched for alternative formulas for Russian fossil fuels, Putin wasted no time. Has sold gas and oil to third partieswho have benefited from the fragile international situation of the Kremlin… and from the discounts that it has applied.
[Rusia dice que la guerra le está saliendo gratis: gana el triple por gas y petróleo de lo que gasta en Ucrania]
Usually, Asia has become the new market for Russia. And its main customers are China and India. In these months, the former has replaced Saudi Arabia with Russia as the main source of oil, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The second has gone even further.
Since the beginning of the invasion in Ukraine, New Delhi has multiplied by ten the purchase of Russian oil. Thus, it has gone from importing 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day last year, to about 388,000 per day in April and 900,000 in May, according to data from the analysis agency Kepler.
India has gone from importing 100 thousand barrels a day in 2021, to 900 thousand a day in May 2022
Figures that explain how in record time India has overtaken Germany as the second largest importer of Russian crude, according to the International Energy Agency. However, this transaction is far from being an act of solidarity with its BRICS ally. In reality, the Government of the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has seized that Putin has lowered the cost of crude oil while the price of global energy has been increasing.
Although the exact price at which Russia sells its crude is unknown, it is assumed a reduction of about 30 dollars compared to the reference barrel of oil in Europe, the Brentaccording to data from the Russian Ministry of Finance collected by Bloomberg.
[La unidad europea sobre Ucrania se rompe: desacuerdo sobre sanciones y sobre el diálogo con Putin]
Opportunism or business?
India mostly relies on imported fuel to meet the growing needs of its more than 1.4 billion people. However, there are suspicions that the Asian country could be reselling Russian crude to those who, precisely, seek to sink the Russian economy.
An investigation of Wall Street Journal based on data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicates that some fuels made partially with Russian crude would have reached the states of New York and New Jersey and, probably, to many other points.
Some conclusions that arise from the numerous shipments of crude oil of hidden origin that in recent months have come out of Indian refineries and they have passed through the Suez Canal in the direction of Europe or the United States.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets French President Emmanuel Macron in June this year.
Eph
These suspicions have alerted the West, which continues to pressure Russia to stop the war in Ukraine. In April, the United States already warned India that sanctions could reach the Asian country if it continues to buy oil from Russia. Also the French president, Emmanuel Macronmet last May with Modi to discuss how to reduce India’s energy dependency on Russia.
However, New Delhi has shown no signs of wanting to abandon the “neutrality” it adopted at the start of the war in Ukraine. The Asian power has never supported the Russian offensive, but neither has it condemned it. Already in February, abstained in the United Nations Security Council vote and this same Friday, during a bilateral meeting, both Modi and Putin expressed its “willingness to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries”.
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