With President Vladimir Putin decreeing that Russia’s military will increase its strength to 1.5 million and become the world’s second largest army, after China, by the end of this year, America and the European Union (EU) should Get rid of your illusions that India and China will manage to persuade Moscow to make peace with Ukraine “quickly”, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi advised President Vladimir Putin at the last BRICS summit in Kazan. They cannot and will not.
To begin with, Putin told Modi that it was difficult to set a deadline for ending the war. Additionally, in September, Moscow’s decision to spend 6.3% of its GDP on national defense – which would represent a third of all spending, Russia’s highest level of defense spending since the end of the Cold War – emphasizes that he does not dream of peace, but of conquering Ukraine. And the reported presence of at least 3,000 North Korean troops on the Russia-Ukraine border portends a deliberate escalation of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which Putin defends as “a Russian matter.”
China makes common cause with Russia against US global primacy and is the strongest partner in their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Like China, India – which is a member of the US-led Quad – has been one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022. And although New Delhi once equipped more than 70% of its military with Russian weapons, it has little influence over Moscow. This is not surprising. Europeans should remember that large purchases of Russian energy by EU countries after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 did not deter Putin from invading Ukraine eight years later. Confronted with this fact in 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel regretted not having influence over Putin. If oil purchases and sales determine “influence,” Putin must have had considerable influence over it. It can now influence India due to its military and economic dependence on Moscow. That might explain India’s concession to Russia when Modi visited Moscow in July: their joint statement referred to the conflict “around Ukraine” rather than in Ukraine.
At another level, Modi’s visits to Russia and Ukraine in July and August, respectively, and New Delhi’s claim to have delivered messages from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Putin amounted to nothing: Moscow denied receiving such messages or a plan to peace from New Delhi, which tarnished India’s claim to be a peace facilitator.
Since mounting his long-planned attack on Ukraine, Putin has continually threatened to expand the war and carry out nuclear strikes against any country that helps Ukraine. Ukraine’s continued incursion into Kursk may have been aimed at giving it a tactical advantage on the battlefield – rather than annexing Russian territory – but it has provided Russia with a pretext to continue wielding its sword, possibly with North Korean troops.
As America and Britain debate giving Ukraine missiles that would allow it to strike deep into Russian territory, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has warned of a “brutal” response. Moscow apparently does not consider its unfinished war against Ukraine to be savage enough.
China has at least put forward a peace plan: India has not even done that, although New Delhi has repeatedly claimed to be on the side of peace.
China proposed a peace plan in 2023 and another with Brazil last May. India, which retreated to the periphery in 2022 by declaring that Ukraine was Europe’s problem, now plays the role of global peace mediator and assures that Russia and Ukraine “will have to negotiate.” However, he cannot persuade them to do so. This is because India has little influence over Russia. Whether in weapons or oil, it has been a client of Russia. Since the war began, Russia has stopped most arms deliveries to India and other customers. Diversifying its arms suppliers, India has increased military purchases from France, Israel and the United States, but at least 60% of its military platforms remain dependent on Russia. As a fledgling arms manufacturer, it will not reach self-sufficiency for at least two decades. India hopes to produce war material with Russia because other friends offer it less than Moscow.
China’s astonishing economic and military rise and its hostility toward the United States give it more influence over Russia than India. It can advance Russia’s global interests more than a lagging India. China’s GDP per capita is $12,614; its defense spending is $231 billion. India’s GDP per capita is $2,484.8, its military spending is $74 billion.
China’s strong relationship in the Pacific with Russia in Eurasia precedes its oil purchases from Russia. They have cultivated each other for more than two decades. Air and naval exercises were held in the Seas of Japan and Okhotsk in September – as were joint exercises in the Indian Ocean in 2019 – with the aim of strengthening their ability to jointly confront security threats against their common enemy, the United States. Russia’s war in Ukraine has made Moscow highly dependent on Beijing economically as an investor and energy buyer. Consequently, India cannot turn Russia against China by purchasing unprecedented amounts of Russian oil.
Peacemakers are supposed to be impartial, but India and China’s abstention from UN resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and their claims to be on the side of peace – actually mask their refusal to condemn aggression. of Moscow while they wait for kyiv to give in. Zelenskyy’s condemnation of Modi for hugging an invader after Russia bombed a children’s hospital in kyiv was haughtily dismissed by New Delhi, which summoned Ukraine’s ambassador to express its displeasure with the president.
Putin’s applause for India, China and Brazil as trusted partners will not improve their image as impartial peace brokers. In different ways, China and India are helping Russia. In June, both rejected Zelenskyy’s peace proposals, which called for preserving Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Modi followed this during his visit to Moscow in July by declaring that Russia was India’s “all-season friend” and a “reliable ally.”
Like the Chinese 2023 plan, the China-Brazil plan opposed the use of nuclear weapons without saying that Russia has threatened to use them several times.
Meanwhile, China and India’s dual technology exports to Russia have angered the US, EU and Japan. America and the EU have warned Indian companies of sanctions if they provide goods and technology that can help Russia sustain its war machine.
In short, the EU and America should stop harboring illusions that so-called Chinese and Indian peace brokers, defending their own national interests, can persuade an aggressive Russia to make peace. Instead, they should give a war-torn but not defeated Ukraine the help it needs to defeat a destructive and expanding Russia.
Note: this is an article republished from “The Wire” through a cooperation agreement between both parties for the dissemination of journalistic content. original link.
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