India sincerely fears that China wants to dominate Asia and then make a deal with the United States and divide the world between them.
India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM), Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, elaborated on his country’s balancing act vis-à-vis China during his appearance last week at the Asian Society Policy Institute. He began with a speech on “India, Asia and the World”, in which he identified the three main trends that are shaping the world today: rebalancing, multipolarity and plurilateralism. These refer to the rise of the non-West, the creation of new independent actors and the formation of limited groups.
All these aspects are relevant to India’s balancing act vis-à-vis China. In terms of rebalancing, India’s aspiration to obtain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, like the People’s Republic of China already has, is proof of the rise of the non-West in global affairs. Its self-perception as the Voice of the Global South and its masterful multi-alignment between competing countries in the new Cold War confirm its role as an independent actor, while the Quad embodies the concept of limited groups, as Jaishankar himself mentioned.
He also commented during the question and answer session that followed his speech that his country “can chew gum and walk at the same time” when asked how it can participate in that aforementioned plurilateral group while remaining a member of the BRICS and the SCO. China is a co-founder of both and both groups are explicitly working to accelerate multipolarity, but Jaishankar strongly hinted that China secretly aspires to unipolarity at least throughout Asia. Here are his exact words:
“I believe that the relationship between India and China is key to the future of Asia. In a way, you can say that if the world is going to be multipolar, Asia has to be multipolar. And therefore this relationship will influence not only the future of Asia, but, in that sense, perhaps the future of the world as well.”
This resonates with what he said in early 2023 while visiting the EU, namely his suggestion that China wants to impose unipolarity in Asia, which would prevent the emergence of multipolarity by restoring a form of bipolarity to the world. It is not important whether observers agree with his implicit assessment, as the importance lies in the fact that India formulates its policy with this suspicion in mind. It is now possible to better understand how the three aspects mentioned above advance this goal.
The unresolved border conflict between China and India continues to poison their relations, as does India’s objection to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that runs through territory controlled by Pakistan, which Delhi claims as its own, not to mention military ties between China and Pakistan. India’s responses to each of these three will always lack the political weight that China carries as long as India does not gain a permanent seat in the UN Security Councilso the People’s Republic will continue to deny it.
That will be more difficult for China without damaging its own reputation if India takes advantage of the rest of the world’s recognition of its status as an independent player in the global systemic transition to support a UN General Assembly Resolution granting it a permanent seat. in the Security Council, as proposed here. Even if China remains recalcitrant, India already exerts a practical influence on multipolarity processes thanks to its large demographic and economic size, so the aforementioned objective could take a backseat.
And finally, India’s membership in more plurilateral configurations may facilitate the achievement of enough limited objectives that it ends up having more influence than some permanent members of the Security Council, such as the United Kingdom and France, especially if Russia is included in such frameworks. . Taken together, the takeaway from Jaishankar’s speech last week is that everything India does is aimed at balancing China, which it fears because it wants to dominate Asia and then strike a deal with the United States and divide the world between them. .
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