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This Monday, March 6, Sergei Shoigu visited the Ukrainian city in the hands of Moscow for the first time since last May to review the construction tasks at a time when tension between the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and the Kremlin is rising due to to the lack of ammunition on the Bakhmut front. The battle for the city accumulates months of fierce fighting that has not been strategically decisive for Moscow.
The fierce fighting that Russia and Ukraine have been carrying out for the past seven months over the city of Bakhmut are increasing the fissures between the Kremlin and the Wagner paramilitary group, one of Moscow’s greatest military allies and who are currently the spearhead on the Ukrainian front.
The situation escalated to such a point that its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has even hinted at a possible “betrayal” of the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, as the cause of the promised munitions not reaching the front.
The video of the paramilitary leader was recorded last Friday in Bakhmut, but it was not released until Monday to counter-schedule Shoigu’s visit to the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the main city taken by the Russians since the start of the large-scale war. against Ukraine just over a year ago.
It was the first time that the minister visited the ruins of what was once one of the most important ports in Ukraine and he did so to supervise the reconstruction work that is being carried out.
That is why Prigozhin’s message is released on this day is not by chance. His relationship with Shoigu is especially controversial and on February 22 the tension reached a maximum when the Wagner leader published a video of dead soldiers from his squad to denounce that the lack of weapons was the cause of his high number of deaths. low. The Russian Defense Ministry promised more weapons, but two weeks later they still haven’t arrived.
Bakhmut, a battle that spans seven months without clear progress
Wagner denounces the abandonment of the Russian authorities on the front and has warned that their withdrawal from it could cause a collapse of the Russian advance in Bakhmut and the Donbass. These mercenaries fully entered the war in Ukraine after accumulating almost ten years of combat experience in various African countries and, especially, in Syria. They have been a fundamental part of the Donbass front and in the seizure of cities such as Mariúpol or Soledar, however, the casualties they have accumulated in recent weeks are enormous.
Several sources suggest that the company, which has a tendency rooted in Russian ultranationalism and the extreme right, is being used as “cannon fodder” in bloody battles such as that of Bakhmut to reduce the casualty numbers of the Russian regular army. However, his performance is increasing his influence within the Russian nationalist sector and increasing criticism of the Kremlin.
The battle for this town in the Donetsk region has put a strain on the interests of the Kremlin, which has been stuck for seven months with its troops trying to take a town that before the war had just over 70,000 inhabitants.
Bakhmut has served as a bottleneck on the front lines for Moscow. It was a place with hardly any strategic or military value that, however, has taken the lives of thousands of Russians and has meant the loss of a huge amount of war material. A situation that has stalled any kind of attempted Russian offensive in the Donbass and that, of course, drives away the idea that Ukraine could be partially or totally controlled.
For Ukraine it has also meant a notable loss of life, but it has served to reinforce positions in other points of the front and for Moscow’s offensive efforts to focus exclusively there. Several war experts, analysts and even the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, have highlighted the “symbolic” value of the city, but have ruled out that its loss represents “a turning point”.
“The fall of Bakhmut will not necessarily mean that the Russians have turned the tide of this fight,” the US official said on a visit to Jordan on Monday.
Intelligence reports indicate that a Ukrainian withdrawal from the city to reinforce positions in other locations would be the most appropriate after having caused a large number of Russian casualties. However, kyiv refuses to give in and on Monday announced the sending of more troops to the area.
Ukrainian forces control only one exit route in the city and the center of it. During the last weeks there has been constant shelling by Russian forces and hand-to-hand fighting at night. For Vladimir Putin, taking Bakhmut would be key propaganda after months of failures at the front and despite everything lost.
Howitzer supply from the European Union is closer
The defense ministers of the Union seem to be more and more in agreement to allocate a billion euros to the purchase of howitzers to give to the Ukraine. This disbursement, promoted by the Estonian prime minister, would come separately from the aid plan for Ukraine and would have the objective of supplying Kiev with artillery at a time when they are suffering shortages on the front.
Both Russia and Ukraine are firing thousands of artillery shells a day, but Moscow can fire thousands more due to its increased supplies, Kiev sources say. Furthermore, Ukraine is using projectiles faster than the United States and NATO allies can produce them. And their reserves are dropping significantly.
If Bakhmut falls in the coming weeks, the acquisition of more weapons will be essential to defend large cities in Donbass that are still under Ukrainian control, such as Kramatorsk, or even to plan a Ukrainian offensive in the future, starting in the summer, before the concentration of Russian troops in Bakhmut.
With AP, Reuters and EFE
