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It has been an exceptional week in Sri Lanka, where protests prompted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and vow to resign. The protesters have also invaded the Prime Minister’s office to demand his resignation. RFI analyzes the political and social crisis with Marcos Bosschart, an expert on Asia Pacific from the digital publication “El Siglo de Asia”.
RFI: What factors triggered the crisis that culminated in Rajapaksa’s departure?
Mark Bosschart: On the one hand, the war in Ukraine that the world is going through has caused inflation to skyrocket not only in the West, but also in countries like Sri Lanka, making basic goods more expensive than ever before.
On the other hand, the ban in 2021 by the prime minister on the use of any type of fertilizers in agriculture, the basis of the Sri Lankan economy, has greatly reduced the production capacity of that country and has made products more expensive.
If we add to all this a very corrupt system already indebted to China from before, then we have some factors that together explode and the population cannot live. The pandemic has deteriorated the Sri Lankan economy, especially one of its great foundations, tourism. It is a perfect storm playing against Rajapaksa.
RFI: Do you fear clashes?
Mark Bosschart: These social upheaval processes of change are often characterized by uncertainty. Therefore, making conclusions or an analysis is a bit dangerous. In theory, the prime minister will act on an interim basis as the new president and head of state. And here there are two possibilities: on the one hand, that it be an orderly succession in which the people of Sri Lanka, together with the interim powers, discuss what model and what way out they want to give to this situation; or on the other hand, what has been mentioned, that social tension does not decrease and that therefore we can experience scenarios of social and even ethnic confrontation. It is the greatest danger.
RFI: Can countries in the region try to take geopolitical advantage of the instability in Sri Lanka?
Mark Bosschart: We are in the Indo Pacific area. There is a very big competition, geopolitically speaking, between China and India. India is not going to want to give up areas of influence: Sri Lanka is obviously very close.
However, we have already seen through the debt how China has gotten a hand in recent years. Therefore, India will certainly look very closely at the events in Sri Lanka, as they directly affect its international interests as well as its sovereignty and national security. But I don’t think he’s gambling when it comes to facing China. You will be very clear about the limits before which you can act or not, or intercede or not with respect to your national interests.
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