In Germany, Olaf Scholz collapses in the polls and the extreme right celebrates

On the first Thursday of every month in Germany, there is a tradition that politicians look forward to: a major national poll, called Deutschlandtrendwhich reveals what the public thinks about the government and the opposition.

Sometimes, Deutschlandtrend It has no major surprises and goes unnoticed. But on occasion she shakes up and sparks a strong political debate.

This is what happened on the first Thursday of this month, when the survey revealed a double trend: the collapse in the popularity of the government and the increase in the popularity of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany or AfD.

In fact, it is the first time that the party that leads the government coalition, in this case the Social Democrats, or SPD, has the same level of approval as the AfD.

These are two parties that could not be more different, both in content and in history: this year, the SPD celebrated 160 years while those of the extreme right celebrated a decade since its creation.

And it is a result that shows not only how polarized the country is, but also how little confidence the Germans have in the coalition government that Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led for a year and a half.

A government in crisis

Two thirds of Germans believe that the country is not in good hands. More than 80 percent believe that the coalition is taking too long to provide answers to big problems. And the vast majority miss clear direction from Scholz.

Part of the problem lies in the very dissimilar nature of the government coalition, the first at the federal level made up of three parties: the Social Democrats, the Liberals and the Greens.

“This is a coalition government that was difficult to form and their agendas are very different on some issues,” Paulina Astroza, director of the Center for European Studies at the University of Concepción, in Chile, told France 24.

“This prevents them from advancing on some issues that citizens consider important and that is undermining the confidence of the Germans,” adds Astroza.

Thus, instead of reaching agreements, the image that the coalition is leaving behind is one of internal quarrels and increasingly deep-rooted positions, especially on highly relevant issues such as the fight against climate change, the national budget or attention to migrants. .

“The continuous dispute (…) does not make the government appear sovereign,” described the German outlet Zeit Online in a article which he titled “Cry for leadership”.

And it is that the title includes another reason that explains the crisis of the Government: in moments of uncertainty, the citizens consider that Chancellor Scholz has not shown sufficient presence and authority to reach agreements on the most urgent issues. Only 32 percent are satisfied with the individual work of the German leader.

This leadership problem is an opinion that is evident among voters of all parties represented in Parliament, including a large majority of supporters of Scholz’s own party.

The chancellor, through a spokesman, explained in reaction to the surveys that “the best thing” the government can do is work on the most relevant issues and “arrive at good solutions.

Rise of the radical right

But while those solutions arrive, the party that is taking advantage of the crisis the most is not the conservatives, the main group in the opposition, but the populists of Alternative for Germany.

In the 2021 federal elections, the AfD won 10 per cent of the vote and although it has since experienced some electoral bumps at the regional level, it has been able to take advantage of the recent discontent of the Germans at the national level.

Above all, those on the far right have been able to capitalize on three issues: the economic uncertainty derived from the war in Ukraine, the chaos of the coalition in the fight against climate change, and the increase in the arrival of migrants.

It is a tremendous wake-up call for the so-called traditional parties

But most of those who would now consider a vote for the AfD do so not because the party offers more solutions or because they are convinced of its programme. Almost 70 percent of supporters would vote for the AfD because they are disappointed in the other parties.

“In short, given the fatigue of not finding an answer to their daily problems, especially economic ones, many Germans feel that they can look for an alternative”, explains Paulina Astroza.

The Chilean analyst adds that it is above all a vote against those in power and that this should worry the traditional parties.

“It is a tremendous wake-up call for the so-called traditional parties, which are losing that connection, they are losing that trust on the part of the German citizenry,” he says.

Of course, surveys like Deutschlandtrend they are just a momentary analysis and respond to a specific context. They may change as political priorities change.

But beyond this, it is clear that the results of this first Thursday of June, in that German political tradition, revealed a crisis in the coalition government that until now only benefits Alternative for Germany.