Maintaining a posture of non-alignment may be necessary to limit the great powers. However, this is no easy task – not even for rich countries – in the current context of economic nationalism.
The critics of geopolitical non-alignment have always characterized it as a flawed and doomed policy, and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine it has fewer and fewer supporters. After all, Ukraine was invaded for not being a member of NATO, which led Sweden and Finland to Leave their traditional neutrality and apply to join the organization.
But maintaining a nonalignment stance or refraining from unconditional alliances with the great powers may be necessary to limit them. Otherwise, the growing nationalism of the superpowers can lead to a world order that threatens the interests of other countries.
Among the world’s major superpowers there is a rise in economic nationalism. A report published in 2019 by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which analyzes the policies of then-US President Donald Trump, highlights his advocacy of protectionism, restrictions on incoming foreign direct investment and immigration, and rejection of multilateral rules . Before that, the US offered its allies a commitment to an international order based on rules and shared security, which the administration of President Joe Biden try to restore. But Trump’s narrative of “America First” (America first) changed that, and many Republican candidates for November’s legislative midterm election promise weaken it even more.
China is also changing what it offers potential allies. Ten years ago, the Belt and Road Initiative it promised partner countries a generous provision of financing for infrastructure and development projects, while the Chinese authorities created a powerful network of economic, financial, political, and security relations around the world. But those investments they are shrinking as China tightens its business strategy on overseas investment.
“China is changing what it offers to its potential allies. It is reducing its foreign investments as it tightens its business strategy»
Just six years ago, President Xi Jinping promised to support a global order based on rules. But at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October, and citing as an argument profound changes in the international landscape and external attempts to blackmail, contain and impose a blockade on China, declared: “we have to put our national interests”.
The new nationalism of the superpowers forces other countries to make difficult decisions. During the cold war, alignment with the United States allowed Western European countries to benefit from free trade and rebuild their economies and democratic systems. But other countries that did not reap such benefits responded to the cold war with Foundationin 1961, of the Non-Aligned Movement, an initiative promoted by the president of Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser, the president of Ghana Kwame Nkrumah, the prime minister of India Jawaharlal Nehru and the presidents of Indonesia, Sukarno, and of Yugoslavia, Josip Broz Titus.
But nonalignment during the cold war was not synonymous with not taking sides. Less than a year after founding the MPNA, Nehru asked for help to the US in the context of the war with China; and a decade later, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (daughter of Nehru) resorted to the Soviet Union. As is well known, Egyptian President Anwar El-Sadat abandonment to the Soviets in favor of the US in the early 1970s. To some extent, some countries can use non-alignment to put both sides in competition with each other on investment, aid, arms purchases, and security deals.
Furthermore, the non-aligned countries can hold the superpowers accountable. This is the example of Singapore, which he refused supported the Indonesian invasion of East Timor in 1975, opposed the US invasion of Grenada in 1983, and has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The countries that make up the Organization of American States they have also condemned Russia for the invasion and has had its status as an observer country suspended. But they did not join the sanctions promoted by the US against Russia, citing as an argument the effects on the Cuban and Venezuelan peoples. Kenya voted in favor of condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly, but a month later abstained in the vote to expel Russia from the Human Rights Council. Kenyan Ambassador Martin Kimani reminded the world that the West suspended Libya from the Human Rights Council before invading it, and that the consequences were disastrous for neighboring countries.
«Emerging nationalism demands economic independence, and achieving it may be difficult after decades of active participation in international markets»
Non-alignment also allows small countries to promote their values and interests without being unconditionally tied to the international policies and preferences of any of the superpowers; something that for these can be problematic, since blind loyalty is more comfortable and allows them to project more power.
Emerging nationalism demands economic independence, and achieving it may be difficult after decades of active participation in international markets. To strengthen its financial resilience, India has accumulated more than 500 billion dollars in foreign currency reserves, and Brazil increased its reserves to more than 300 billion dollars. Another way to build resilience is to reduce external debt. In the mid-2000s, 46% of Indonesia’s public debt and 83% of Chile’s were denominated in foreign currency. Last year, Indonesia and Chile had reduced that percentage to 23% and 32% respectively.
But increasing independence can be difficult even for rich countries. For example, a recent report by the European Council on Foreign Relations argues that if the European Union wants to act in accordance with its values without suffering “harassment” from other parties, must improve its technological capabilities. With this objective, the EU has already taken steps in the direction of obtaining more strategic autonomy, through the creation of the European Battery Alliancewith which it seeks to develop a competitive and sustainable value chain on the continent for this input.
But there is still much to do. The intensification of Sino-American rivalry is changing the global balance of power. In addition, the two superpowers face domestic political challenges that may affect their foreign policies. In the meantime, don’t blame other countries for resorting to non-alignment in search of independence: not being swayed by the big superpowers may help them achieve a more equitable world order.
© Project Syndicate, 2022. www.project-syndicate.org
