This Friday, June 21, the most recent data on births and deaths in Colombia were released, ending in April, in which the downward trend in the number of citizens born continues, this time in the first four months of the year. while the number of deaths, from various causes, continues to grow at a slow pace.
According to reports from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane), in preliminary figures, during the first four months of 2024, 145,416 births were reported in the country, a figure which marks a decline of 14.6% compared to the 170,205 of the same period in 2023.
Piedad Urdinola, director of Dane.
Courtesy – Dane
However, if we take into account that between January and April 2015 (10 years ago) 211,452 births had been reported in the same period, there is a 31% drop in registrations. If the post-pandemic rebounds are discounted, it can be said that the negative trend in births has been going on since 2019.
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“So far in 2024, in preliminary figures, the country reaches the figure lowest number of births that occurred between January 1 and April 30 of each year, during the last decade, with a total of 145,416 live births. This represents a reduction of -14.6% in the volume of births compared to the same period in 2023, which corresponds to 24,789 fewer births,” indicated Dane.
Births
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These data would confirm the assertion of some experts on population issues in the country, who maintain that the demographic decline in Colombia would have already begun and that the most worrying thing of all is that if so, it was at least three decades ahead of what they had expected. projected the accounts in this matter.
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According to Jesús Fernández Villaverde and Iván Luzardo, from the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, it is necessary to closely monitor these changes in population figures, since it would already be clear that the Colombian population began to decline in 2023.
Between 2010 and 2021, more than 1.1 million births have occurred in Colombia in girls and adolescents between 10 and 19 years old who are in marriage or child unions.
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“According to Dane projections, the Colombian population rose from 51,682,692 inhabitants in 2022 to 52,215,506 in 2023, which would mean an increase of 1.03%. However, this projection is not consistent with the behavior of births, deaths and net migration,” they highlighted.
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Thus things warn that if this unusual phenomenon is occurring, its implications must be thoroughly reviewed, given that “it has not yet been identified by the authorities. Colombia would thus have been almost three decades ahead of what was projected by official statistics, which estimated said decline for the 2050s.”
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Other focuses in this information presented by Dane was related to the country of origin and habitual residence of the mother, finding that during the first four months of 2024 there was a drop in the contribution of live births of immigrant mothers from Venezuela in the total number of births that the country registers, going from representing 8.5% in 2020 to 4.5% in 2024.
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“Overall, births to immigrant mothers from another country or mothers residing in Venezuela do not exceed 1.0% in 2024, a figure that is also decreasing, when in 2020 these same groups account for 2.7% of births. reported in the national territory,” says the Dane report.
Central American migrants
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Regarding the age range of fathers and mothers in the total of births reported in the first four months of the year, according to Dane, in the case of women, the majority were in the groups between 15 and 19 years old and from 20 to 24; while in the case of men the highest range was in the groups between 20 and 24 years old and between 25 and 29 years old.
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“So far in 2024 and compared to 2020 in mothers, the five-year age group that most reduces its participation in the total number of births at the urban and rural level, corresponds to adolescents between 15 and 19 years old, with decreases of -3.9 percentage points in urban areas and -2.5 in rural areas,” this report also added.
Inflation figure reflected an improvement in the purchasing power of the country’s vulnerable and poor population.
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Deaths rise little by little
Although the data on non-fetal deaths in the country has been increasing little by little in recent times in Colombia, the statistical authority’s accounts show a growth of 24% in the last 10 years, going from 71,982 in 2015 to 88,959 in 2024, taking the first four months of each year as a reference.
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“The distribution of deaths by sex in the current year 2024, It presents a similar behavior to previous years, with a higher percentage of men. In the year 2024, the percentage of non-fetal deaths of men is 54.3%, and the percentage of women is 45.7%,” said Dane.
Deaths.
These data also show that older adults concentrate the highest number of deaths after maintaining a growing trend that goes from 48,960 deaths in 2015 to 65,163 deaths in 2024, a trend that is repeated in young adults, which goes from 5,594 in 2015. to 6,761 in 2024.
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On the other hand, in early childhood the trend is decreasing, going from 2,970 cases in 2015 to 2,050 cases in 2024, a change that It is also evident in adolescence, which goes from 1,236 cases in 2015 to 1,042 in 2024.
Deaths.
“So far in 2024, the first cause of death is ischemic heart diseases with 16.8% of deaths, followed by cerebrovascular diseases with 6.3% and chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract with 5.6%”, concluded Dane.
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With this, little by little, a trend that has been warning by analysts and study centers, and which highlights that the population is aging and that it is heading to face social phenomena such as those already seen in Europe and some Asian countries, where the lack of strength labor is impacting the productive dynamics of nations.
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