IBM is keeping its promise: if it keeps scaling the qubits like this the crucial bug fix is ​​coming soon

The itinerary that IBM has shaped in the field of quantum computing is very ambitious. Extraordinarily ambitious. Last year on this same date it presented Eagle, its 127-qubit quantum processor, but this chip did not arrive alone; landed with the promise that a year later we would have a 433 qubit quantum processor. And here it is.

Just ten days ago we told you that this company has presented Osprey, and it is, without a doubt, the most advanced quantum chip that exists right now. You’ve arrived on time for your appointment, as did Eagle last year, which invites us to accept that possibly IBM’s next stop on your itinerary is also tightly packed. And they are big words.

Condor, the quantum processor that it will presumably have ready around this time in 2023, will integrate nothing less than 1,121 qubits. There are many if we compare this figure with the complexity of current quantum chips, but few if we keep our eyes fixed on the number of qubits that need to be fine-tuned to implement the long-awaited error correction.

Having a million qubits by 2030 is no longer a far-fetched ambition

It is still not entirely clear how many qubits we need to implement a reliable error correction system that guarantees that the results that quantum computers give us are correct. During the conversation we had with Ignacio Cirac in the middle of last year, this highly renowned scientist, unanimously considered one of the founding fathers of quantum computing, gave us some very interesting clues:

The number of qubits will depend on the type of problems we want to solve with quantum computers. To tackle symbolic problems we will need to have several million qubits. Probably even hundreds of millions of qubits. Right now we are talking about a hundred qubits, so there is a long way to go. There are people who say that with 100,000 qubits maybe a specific problem can be solved, but really, a lot of qubits are needed.

Ignacio Cirac is a very cautious researcher, so we can collect his words with the certainty that he is not being excessively optimistic or benevolent. The number of qubits he estimates is necessary to implement error correction is enormous, but as we have seen, IBM’s timetable is very ambitious. And this company is showing us that their technology has a scalability extraordinarily promising.

In fact, it has recently updated its road map to accurately anticipate what their quantum processors will be like beyond 2023. Flamingo will arrive in 2024, with at least 1,386 qubits; in 2025, Kookaburra, with no less than 4,158 qubits, and from that moment the interconnection of several of these chips will allow IBM to scale its quantum hardware in the range that extends between 10,000 and 100,000 qubits. When this milestone arrives, this company will be flirting with the figures that Cirac predicts.

If we look carefully at the itinerary that we can see in the image that we publish above these lines, we will verify that IBM plans to have the ability to correct errors from 2026. He does not necessarily have to arrive that same year, but it follows from his promise that this barrier will possibly fall before the end of this decade.

And if the correction of errors finally comes to fruition, the prototypes of quantum computers that we currently have will leave behind their status as prototypes and will allow us to face really significant problems.

Interestingly, IBM is not the only company that has in its sights to develop quantum computers endowed with the ability to correct their own errors. The Canadian company Xanadu Quantum Technologies, which this year has achieved quantum supremacy with its Borealis photonic processor, plans to have a quantum computer ready before the end of this decade. a million qubits able to correct their own mistakes.

We can be sure of one thing: during the remainder of the decade we are going to witness very important milestones in the field of quantum computing. We can go rubbing our hands.

Cover image: IBM