‘I think they have no chance; Erdogan will win the elections’, estimates analyst

First modification: 05/18/2023 – 12:18

By RFI correspondent in Istanbul

The Turkish opposition is trying to recover from the blow suffered in the elections last Sunday. The coalition that supports President Erdogan maintained the majority in Parliament and Erdogan himself garnered 49.5% of the votes in the presidential elections, so he starts with a certain advantage for the second round against the opposition candidate, the center-left Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

“Of course the results have created an air of disappointment among opposition voters,” said Baris Tugrul, a professor of Sociology of Communication at Hacettepe University in Ankara, who perceives this sentiment among his own students.

“This disappointment is not due to the actual results but to a false expectation created and caused by the polls in which both the opposition candidate and the alliance would achieve victory in the first round,” he adds.

This situation has allowed Erdogan to present himself as the winner of the elections despite the fact that both his support and that of his party have been considerably reduced.

Ozer Sencar, founder of the Metropoll polling institute, maintains that the victory of the Turkish president, after twenty years in power, is assured.

“I think they have no chance. Erdogan will win the elections. People do not perceive that the opposition can govern better than Erdogan, ”she summarizes.

However, the campaign has already begun, and the opposition alliance seeks to convince the 5% of the voters who, in the first round, opted for the third candidate, an ultranationalist politician. To do this, they have reinforced the discourse against refugees and immigration, although many analysts doubt that this strategy can have an effect.