Humanity runs colossal risks at the limits of the Earth System

May 31. (EUROPE PRESS) –

An international scientific commission, in which more than 40 researchers from all over the world participate, has carried out the first study that quantifies the limits of the Earth System.

They warn that humans are running colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth.

In this work, published in the journal ‘Nature’the scientists provide the first quantification of safe and fair Earth system limits at global and local scales for various biophysical systems and processes that regulate the state of the Earth system.

For the first time, security and justice for humanity on Earth are assessed and quantified for the same control variables that regulate life support and stability on Earth. Justice, assessed on the basis of avoiding significant harm to people around the world, narrows the boundaries of the Earth system, providing even less space available to humans on Earth. The Land Commission has concluded that many of the safety boundaries have already been breached.

“We are in the Anthropocene, putting the stability and resilience of the entire planet at risk. That is why, for the first time, we present quantifiable figures and a solid scientific base to assess the state of our planetary health, not only in terms of stability and resilience of the Earth System, but also in terms of human well-being and equity/justice“, explains Professor Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, lead author and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

“Justice is a necessity for humanity to live within planetary boundaries. This is a conclusion that the scientific community has captured in multiple weighty environmental assessments. It is not a political option“, warns co-author Professor Joyeeta Gupta, Co-Chair of the Land Commission, Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and Professor of Law and Policy of Water Resources and the Environment. of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education.

“There is overwhelming evidence that a fair and equitable approach is essential for planetary stability. We cannot have a biophysically safe planet without justice,” he adds. “This includes setting fair targets to prevent significant harm and ensuring access to resources to people and for, as well as fair transformations to achieve those objectives”.

The Earth Commission has quantified safe and fair limits for climate, biodiversity, freshwater, and various types of air, soil, and water pollution, and most have been broken. For example, human activities are altering water flows, excessive amounts of nutrients are released into waterways from the use of fertilizers and limited natural areas remain.

This poses existential threats to a stable planet, to ecosystems and their vital contributions to people. The world is already over the limit for climate security and justice, set at 1°C above pre-industrial temperature levels, as tens of millions of people are already affected by the current level of climate change.

“The results of our checkup are quite worrying: Within the five domains analysed, several limits have already been transgressed, on a global and local scale. This means that unless a transformation occurs in time, they are most likely to be inevitable irreversible tipping points and widespread impacts on human well-being. Avoiding that scenario is crucial if we are to ensure a safe and just future for current and future generations.” continues Rockstrom.

“The Earth system is in danger, as many tipping elements are about to cross their tipping points. Seventeen tipping elements have been identified in the scientific literature so far, of which nine are related to the cryosphere. The Asian High Mountain Cryosphere (AHMC) is changing rapidly and about to become a new tipping point, which may impact the regional socio-economy,” explains Professor Dahe Qin, Co-Chairman of the Earth Commission and Director of the Committee Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

“The Earth system is an interconnected set of biophysical processes that operate across regions and scales. Interference in one part of the world can have huge repercussions in other regions,” explains Wendy Broadgate, Executive Director of the Earth Commission and Director of the Global Center for Future Earth (Sweden).

The study is based on sound scientific data that defines the biophysical conditions necessary to maintain a stable, life-supporting planet on Earth (“safe”) and assesses how to avoid significant harm to humans and other species. Previous scientific attempts to define environmental boundaries, such as the Planetary Boundaries framework, have looked at the global conditions necessary to maintain a stable planet and safeguard life on Earth.

Safe boundaries ensure stable and resilient conditions on Earth, and use interglacial Holocene-like Earth system functioning as a benchmark for a healthy planet, the researchers note. A stable and resilient Earth is dominated by balancing feedbacks that cope with disturbances and dampen them. Cutting-edge science on climate tipping points is an important line of evidence for setting safe limits.

Fair limits minimize human exposure to significant harm. The Commission defines significant harm as: severe, irreversible, or widespread existential negative impacts on countries, communities, and people as a consequence of Earth system change, such as loss of life, livelihoods or income, displacement, loss of food security, water or nutritional problems, chronic diseases, injuries or malnutrition.

“Our safe and fair boundaries will guide goal setting, but they must also be performed through fair transformation processes that guarantee a minimum access of people to resourcesadded Gupta.

“A safe and just transformation to a manageable planet requires urgent collective action by multiple actors, especially in government and business to act within Earth system boundaries to keep our planet’s life support system intact. . Managing the commons has never been more urgent or more important“, underlines Wendy Broadgate, Executive Director of the Land Commission and Director of the Global Center (Sweden) of Future Earth.

“With this global scientific assessment, we provide all stakeholders with the scientific boundaries that can enable prosperous and equitable global development on a stable planet, a better future for people and the planet,” Rockström said. This new science serves as input to the development of science-based targets.”

“These can be adopted by cities, companies and countries to address the global systemic crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, nutrient overload, excessive water use and air pollution,” he concludes.